Analyzing Hands

[rwood 0]

I have started writing about certain hands i play in tournaments, both online and at casinos, please respond with any thoughts or comments on your opinion on the hand and how i played it. thanks for your posts and comments!!i thought this hand to be interesting in a tourney i played:i am dealt pocket jacks in the small blind with 1830 chips with the blinds at 25/50. 3 players limp in, and the player to the right of the button raises all in. Now i was planning on making a decent sized raise, maybe about 250,( i know thats 5 times the bb, but players are so damn loose these days) to push out the not so great hands, but this fellow has done that job for me. so i start thinking, with 3 players in already, and still 3 to play, why would he bet all in? was he trying to steal the blinds, hoping that the limpers were weak? i doubt it, the players at this table were very loose, so he couldnt have thought that he could steal ALLthe blinds. so i tried to put him on a hand, he must have a strong hand to start with, at first i put him on AK or AQ suited, but why would he push all in with aq or ak, it seemed like a good idea, if someone did call he had at worst to be even money, but i just couldnt justify the all in bet with those hands, if someone calls you're almost for sure a coinflip, and maybe even a bigger favorite. then i thought it seemed like a good play with high pockets, like AA, KK, or QQ, making it seem like he was trying to steal with a marginal hand, and getting someone to call as a huge underdog, but this didnt seem like a play this player would make. i then made a huge mistake on my part, i started to think:"what would i do?", in this spot i could only think that i would make this play with 99, TT, and maybe 88. But i prefer post flop play entirely over all in preflop. but i could see how i would do it with maybe TT. I went with my logic, putting him on middle pockets, which would make him a 4-1 underdog to my jacks. i put all my chips in and he ended up having AQH!!! my initial read was correct, cool, but now i had gone from a huge favorite to a little over even money!!! the flop came down TH TS 8H, giving him the four card flush. on the turn he made his nut flush and i was drawing dead...except wait...there was a pair on the board...so if i hit one of the 2 remaining jacks, or another ten, i would fill up and win!! on the river i hit my 4 outer and was back from the rail to being very healthy. i ended up going on and placing 2nd in the tournament. More importantly, i learned an important lesson from this hand, do not base your read on what you would do in the position, but what you believe your opponent would do. hope to hear some comments! thanks

[t-bone 0]

rwood,What stakes are these? Is this a $5+1, $10+1, $50? I'm assuming $5 or $10 because you mentioned how bad the players were, but I'm still not sure. Anyways, I immediately put this guy on Ak or AQ. Not a pocket pair. In this situation, I would have ruled out a smaller pp than JJ simply because if I was wrong, you're a coin flip. I like to stay away from coin flips early on in sngs, and calling an allin with JJ almost ALWAYS means you're in a coin flip, or very far behind. I have no problem going allin, but calling with JJ is a marginal play in my book.Im my opinion you could have folded and waited for a better spot. You said yourself that you'd rather play the flop than preflop. The hand worked out well - you won the coin-flip, but you're going to lose in that situation half the time. I'd rather be the one putting the pressure on than have it pushed on me. Remeber what all the books say, "go with your gut." Your gut first told you he had AK or AQ, you were right. Then your head got in the way and somehow managed to make you believe he might have a smaller pp. Food for thought.Trav

[wrto4556 0]

No offense, but you made a horrible call. You have a good amount of chips and it's way to early in the tournament to take a risk like this. You should have layed it down and fought later in the tournament. You got lucky this time, but you didn't need to get lucky, that's my main point. It's only the third level of blinds!! you are crazy.

[JimmyWellington 1]

Gotta agree with wrto. It's early in the tournament, and you're risking all your chips with JJ against someone that just pushed all in? You're risking everything for (if you're lucky) is just over even money at best. Unless you got a REAL good reason to believe that he's got a middle pair, this is an easy fold.

[rwood 0]

Thanks a lot for you replies...after thinking about this hand and reading your replies, i should have laid it down...anyways hope you all enjoy this new section and my posts, there will be many more. All your input really helps...it's great having insight to so many different styles of play. Hope all your poker goes great till next post!