35 replies to this topic

[NoSup4U]

BaseJester, on Tuesday, October 21st, 2008, 8:05 PM, said:

It sounds to me like there's an argument for folding on the flop.

I think folding the flop is pretty weak and just bad for a lot of long term reasons. I do think I should have mucked the turn, but I convinced myself that if he was bluffing he'd for sure fire the turn, and maybe he was being dumb with AK. But if you had a good read on someone and showed me a hand where you folded this flop, I wouldn't think you were crazy.Mark

[BaseJester]

AimHigher, on Tuesday, October 21st, 2008, 6:34 PM, said:

This is a six max hand, not full ring. You can maybe discount A9 from his range, but it's definitely incorrect to say someone whose preflop raising percentage is 14% is folding AT, AJ or JJ UTG. A9+, 22+ and KQ is a decent preflop range to assign him.Edit: Unless Snamuh posts above me and says he is folding ATo, in which case, I can just shut up.

That range is 13% of hands. I'd expect his UTG raising range to be a little tighter than his overall raising range (14%).

[Deftones150]

Obv the guy is a super nit for 6 max. UTG raise has to be AJs+ AQo+ and how low the pps go is probably 99 or TT imo.I still fold but its possible that QQ, KK take a c/r fold line on the flop. Is the valueish bet on the river scarier than a shove???

[NoSup4U]

Deftones150, on Tuesday, October 21st, 2008, 9:47 PM, said:

I still fold but its possible that QQ, KK take a c/r fold line on the flop.

Why would anyone good c/raise the flop with KK on an Axx board? (without some crazy read on me that I'm going to stack off with middle pair or a draw or something?)

[TrueAce13]

What is your image as of now? That could have a lot to do with this decision, though I think Acid and Snamuh and say that any competent villain isn't doing this with AK or AQ.

[Deftones150]

I was doped up on cold medicine what I meant was is it possible..... I have a read a few times about people tend to think too often that someone plays just like they do. If he is the type that will not call an UTG raise with AT, AJ and AQo he may expect someone with AK to 3-bet in that situation. IF he has reason to believe this he may think that a c/r allows him to rep AK and most other aces will fold and if he gets raised he can easily fold KK,QQ knowing he is crushed.

[Dratj]

NoSup4U, on Wednesday, October 22nd, 2008, 8:13 AM, said:

Why would anyone good c/raise the flop with KK on an Axx board? (without some crazy read on me that I'm going to stack off with middle pair or a draw or something?)

what would be a standard line if villian had KK? cbet the flop, if called then give up? or just check fold?

[tskillz187]

Dratj, on Wednesday, October 22nd, 2008, 2:10 PM, said:

what would be a standard line if villian had KK? cbet the flop, if called then give up? or just check fold?

My assumption is c/c flop c/f turn

[NoSup4U]

Dratj, on Wednesday, October 22nd, 2008, 3:10 PM, said:

what would be a standard line if villian had KK? cbet the flop, if called then give up? or just check fold?

tskillz187, on Wednesday, October 22nd, 2008, 4:10 PM, said:

My assumption is c/c flop c/f turn

Yeah. Without any bigger metagame involved, if you have KK there is little reason to bet an A high flop when you were the pf utg raiser. Everyone expects you to have an ace, so its hard to get action from worse. And you can never be happy getting multiple streets of action.So I definitely check the flop unless its super drawy and I have some reason to believe villain is the type to call any draw or pair and NOT semibluff raise me. Then after I check, its pretty villain dependent. I call and check the turn a lot. I fold the flop sometimes, I fold the turn sometimes, I check call all 3 streets sometimes. But check/call, check/fold turn is 'standard' imo.Mark

[CobaltBlue]

NoSup4U, on Tuesday, October 21st, 2008, 10:39 PM, said:

He checks the flop so now I generally give uncreative 2/4nl players a range here of a set being 'tricky', or any underpair to the ace. Possibly AT, and really unlikely a big ace being tricky. (I just don't see people checking AK in this spot much)I bet and he raises me. Now I'm super worried because this smells like a monster. He never has KK here, or AJ, or anything ridiculous outside of the random spazout bluff. But I didn't think there was any reason for him to spaz out vs me.

I agree with BaseJester...this actually sounds like a fold on the flop. If you're "super worried" and still have plenty of money left...what are you looking for on the turn? In my experience, very few villains are going to go for a c/r instead of c-bet and then check the turn.That said, it's an easy fold on the river; it's a reasonable fold on the turn; it's a difficult (potentially stellar) fold on the flop.Really, the one major factor that I can see affecting this hand might be your image.

[mtdesmoines]

CobaltBlue, on Friday, October 24th, 2008, 2:50 PM, said:

I agree with BaseJester...this actually sounds like a fold on the flop. If you're "super worried" and still have plenty of money left...what are you looking for on the turn? In my experience, very few villains are going to go for a c/r instead of c-bet and then check the turn.That said, it's an easy fold on the river; it's a reasonable fold on the turn; it's a difficult (potentially stellar) fold on the flop.Really, the one major factor that I can see affecting this hand might be your image.

If it's a set of aces, those are absolutely stellar value bets by the villain on all streets. Which would be one of the characteristics of a "17/14 decent reg."I think meta game also might be justify a call here.

[NoBBiR]

NoSup4U, on Tuesday, October 21st, 2008, 7:41 PM, said:

I think folding the flop is pretty weak and just bad for a lot of long term reasons. I do think I should have mucked the turn, but I convinced myself that if he was bluffing he'd for sure fire the turn, and maybe he was being dumb with AK. But if you had a good read on someone and showed me a hand where you folded this flop, I wouldn't think you were crazy.Mark

If this is all true, then you have to fold the river. I really think the whole way he's played this hand doesn't looks like anything other than AA unless he's just blowing up. And given the fact that you've played the hand so strangely, he has to know you have something. I don't think this is a standard line with AK for a good regular either, so it's basically AA or air, while AA is much more likely.And I agree with MT. Those bets are excellent value bets. Another reason I don't feel comfortable calling unless you know he's capable of doing some crazy stuff.

[simo_8ball]

I agree that it's a fold on the flop. You don't need to worry about metagame too much because you could easily just be bet/folding a hand like A5s there. You're not going to be in this kind of situation anywhere near often enough for it to make any real difference.This would be a pretty bad board for him to checkraise bluff, especially if he's bluffing so small (making you call $56 more on the flop into $164), and checkraising a hand like AK/AQ for value would just be too weird. After you call the flop raise, bluffing $122 on the turn just seems pretty bad too.One big thing to consider (that I'm not sure anyone has mentioned) is that you have to almost completely ignore the odds you're getting on the flop. If you're behind, he is betting all the way down, and if you're ahead he's not going to put much in. Your flop call simply sets you up to be value bet down by a better hand. You're in a real reverse implied odds situation, and as such you need to have the best hand a pretty big % of the time to call the flop.

[CobaltBlue]

simo_8ball, on Saturday, October 25th, 2008, 7:01 AM, said:

One big thing to consider (that I'm not sure anyone has mentioned) is that you have to almost completely ignore the odds you're getting on the flop. If you're behind, he is betting all the way down, and if you're ahead he's not going to put much in. Your flop call simply sets you up to be value bet down by a better hand. You're in a real reverse implied odds situation, and as such you need to have the best hand a pretty big % of the time to call the flop.

No one mentioned it, but I was definitely thinking it. The flop raise isn't "big"...but again...I'm not clear what we're looking for on the turn. Even if we fill on the turn/river, we still may be beat (and will probably get stacked if so).

[Influcted]

What were the results?

[NoSup4U]

Influcted, on Saturday, October 25th, 2008, 10:49 AM, said:

What were the results?

I folded the river pretty quickly I think.Mark