exec771, on Monday, April 9th, 2007, 2:13 AM, said:
I am a CL at 25/45 final table on stars with 17k next biggest stack is 8k.7 places pay and we are 9 handed so close to bubble.....*** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to mbajpai [Ts 7h]Beelzebub: folds 15lbsNUTS: folds mbajpai: raises 1090 to 1690 KELLYBAR: calls 1690 zTruthOrDare: folds boernirohr: folds Piquette: folds pokermon138: folds ignis 22: folds *** FLOP *** [3c 5c 8c] mbajpai: bets 15480 and is all-in KELLYBAR: calls 4140 and is all-in *** TURN *** [3c 5c 8c] [3h] *** RIVER *** [3c 5c 8c 3h] [Ks] *** SHOW DOWN *** mbajpai: shows [Ts 7h] (a pair of Threes) KELLYBAR: shows [As Kh] (two pair, Kings and Threes) KELLYBAR collected 13010 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 13010 | Rake 0 Board [3c 5c 8c 3h Ks]If I have any club hes 50-50. Am I missing something here or is it a horrible call??
What a great question!
I am going to spend a little time on this because I was on the losing side of overplaying my AK recently and this has been the subject of a lot of healthy debate with my friends. That debate has opened my eyes a little about the dynamics of this kind of hand.Since you did not give a lot of information on the game, the play previous to the hand, your table image and the table image of your opponents, it is tough to go into a lot of analysis without making assumptions as we go. You can always hang a guy for assumptions, but after all, that is what a poker forum is all about: you want ideas and opinions that look at the problem from a different point of view. So here we go!Making a play for the blinds with any two cards as chip leader close to the bubble is a play. Since you do not give too much background of play prior to you raising with T7o, I can only assume that the table had tightened up. If it was loose and contesting pots, then clearly raising with T7 makes no sense unless you are gambling and throwing a party. So the table is tight (fair assumption), you raise, and get called.You get called so it is a fair bet you are facing a pp or Ax. In a purely mathematical sense, you have to understand that you are either getting called with garbage (unlikely, this *is* a final table after all) or you are "in the hunt for six outs".The flop does not give you anything, you did not gain any edge on any of the range of hands (pp + Ax) that he called your T7 with, and you are behind.You can bluff at the flop if you want, but since two out of three times a player will not connect with a flop, he can take the position that his AK had good chances to still be ahead.Additionally, overplaying AK is pretty common in any case. I know I overplay it and in fact lost most of my stack
in the early stages of the WPT Paris Qualifier last Saturday on FullTiltPoker (which I ultimately won
& yes I am going to Paris to play). AK is a tough hand to play but it is a strong hand.What are the true odds that the AK is behind after that flop?Let's look at it from the point of view of the player holding AK.He has a 2/3 chance you did not connect with the board.He puts you on some sort of a range of hands. Is your table image loose? Is your table image tight? I think a good case can be made that he thought your table image was pretty loose, because he put you on a very broad
range of hands. An example of a broad range of hands would be: Any pair 22 - AA, Jx, Qx, Kx, and Ax, where x = 9.Remember this is an example. In this range of hands, he is behind if you connected with the board or if he is facing a pp. The flop is all under 9, so it is not unreasonable for AK to take the position that you did not connect with the board. Note that I am saying that it does not seem *unreasonable* for the player with AK to take the position you missed the flop.In the range of hands (Any pair 22 - AA, Jx, Qx, Kx, and Ax, where x = 9) what are the odds AK is behind?Any pair 22 - AA = (pairs 22, 44, 66, 77, 99, TT, JJ, QQ) + (pairs 33, 55, 88) + (pairs KK - AA) = (8 x 6) + (3+3+3) +(3+3) = 63 hands.Jx (x=9) = J9 + JT + JQ + JK + JA = 16 + 16 + 16 + 12 + 12 = 72 hands ... [JJ is a pair & already counted]Qx (x=9) = Q9 + QT + QK + QA = 16 + 16 + 12 + 12 = 58 hands ... [QJ & QQ are already counted]Kx (x=9) = K9 + KT + KA = 16 + 16 + 9 = 41 hands ... [KJ, KQ, & KK are already counted] Total hands = 63 + 72 + 58 + 41 = 234 hands.Soooooooo
here is the situation. In the range (Any pair 22 - AA, Jx, Qx, Kx, and Ax, where x = 9) the AK is behind in 63 out of 234 hands, or about 27% of the hands.Or in better words, the AK is ahead 73% of the time.
There are other ways of doing this, of course, but this exercise is worth doing once in a while. WHat this shows is that even for a broad range of hands, the AK has good reason to believe he is ahead.Also note that you are outside of the range of hands considered by the player with AK, so in actual fact, he is further ahead than he thinks he is.So I think his call is correct.I am *not* saying that your raise with T7 is wrong, ... I mean, they are your cards and you had some reason to make a play at the pot at that time. The real problem is that someone to your left woke up with a hand and called.I hope this point of view helps and I hope my math is right
.Good luck in your games!