mtdesmoines, on Tuesday, October 21st, 2008, 11:44 AM, said:
Quick question ... Why wouldn't you raise the turn, Mark?
AcesOnFire, on Tuesday, October 21st, 2008, 4:40 PM, said:
I don't see how this can be a hand weaker than yours. I think anything but a set backs off to the filled up straight and flush draws on that river. I mean if you look at it in the way of 'what does he think I have' he has to atleast put you on some kind of ace.
I didn't raise the turn because of what AcesOnFire said. What must my hand look like to him? I think my range here is some Ax, T9, 87, QJ, maybe JT. When he bet the turn I was like wtf I'm REALLY surprised he bet here because that turn card just clobbers MY range, not his.
NonZeroPossibility, on Tuesday, October 21st, 2008, 5:06 PM, said:
Yeah, I was gonna say why not raise the turn? Taking a page from DN, how about a min-raise on the turn?I know a lot of you don't like to raise for information, but this is the perfect spot for that.You make it $244 right there on the turn versus calling $122 on the turn and a much bigger bet on the river.It's gonna be reallllll hard for him to put anymore money in the pot unless he does have the AA and you might get a free showdown by min-raising the turn. If you get called and he fires again on the river, then it's a real easy lay-down. That's the way I see it anyway.
NonZeroPossibility, on Tuesday, October 21st, 2008, 6:26 PM, said:
The point is, is that we don't know if bottom 2 is the best hand or not and it's obvious we're a little lost here. This could very easily be AK we're against.After the action that happened, I wouldn't mind a fold by Villain at all. I'd rather take it down right there than have to face a huge bet on the river and have no ****ing clue what to do.
I think you answered your own question. You say maybe min raise the turn, and also that its going to be REALLY hard for him to put any more money in the pot without AA. So this negates a turn raise imo. He possibly calls a min turn raise with AK, but if he doesn't shove AK on the turn then he isn't betting AK on the river when we call the turn imo. And if he shoves AK over our min turn raise then we're losing more than if we just call the turn and fold to his AK bet on the river.I ended up folding the river reasonably quickly. I just thought it was a good hand to post because imo because I thought it played out well for hand reading.Preflop we know he's a tight decent regular at 2/4nl, which means he's an ABC style poker nit. He raises utg so I'd give him a range of any pair (I don't know if he raises 66- but we'll assume), AT+, KQs, maybe QJs and KJs?He checks the flop so now I generally give uncreative 2/4nl players a range here of a set being 'tricky', or any underpair to the ace. Possibly AT, and really unlikely a big ace being tricky. (I just don't see people checking AK in this spot much)I bet and he raises me. Now I'm super worried because this smells like a monster. He never has KK here, or AJ, or anything ridiculous outside of the random spazout bluff. But I didn't think there was any reason for him to spaz out vs me.I call the flop and then the turn comes a pretty bad card for him imo and he bets out again. Now I feel like his range is a set, AK, or a bluff here. He still might bet AK because I could have a weaker ace or QJ, but again I think AK just leads the flop most of the time.I call the turn and he fires again on the river. IMO this is really suicidal with AK because any competent villain folds Arag on the turn. Its the thinnest of thin betting AK there I think. So to me he has top two or better in this spot, or a bluff. And with him being a nit and raising utg, I think his range is just super weighted towards stuff that beats me.Mark