35 replies to this topic

[NoSup4U]

Villain is a 17/14 decent reg so his utg range is pretty tight imo. Let me know what you think his range of hands here is when you post.No Limit Holdem Ring gameBlinds: $2/$46 playersConverterStack sizes:UTG: $704.50UTG+1: $406.00CO: $314.05NoSup4U: $609.60SB: $479.00BB: $93.10Pre-flop: (6 players) NoSup4U is Button with UTG raises to $14, 2 folds, NoSup4U calls, SB folds, BB calls.Flop: ($44, 3 players)BB checks, UTG checks, NoSup4U bets $32, BB folds, UTG raises to $88, NoSup4U calls.Turn: ($220, 2 players)UTG bets $122, NoSup4U calls.River: ($464, 2 players)UTG bets $288, NoSup4U ?????Mark

[Pig P0ker]

this is a tough one.. it is hard to put him on 1010 or 99 since you have one of each. I dont think he would check an AK here UTG, but it is a possibility. Can we put him on AA? do you have any tells on his big pocket pairs and how he plays them preflop? I do not think he could have improved on the turn, nor the river. I would put him on either AK or AA, and the rest is up to you to decide which one... i would ultimately say AA though.

[AimHigher]

I'd think it was a fold even if we can see two of the tens and two of the nines in the deck. I think if he has AQ/AK he would typically just fire the flop rather than sacrificing the lead in order to build the pot. Really those are the only two plausible hands that we beat.A9, AT, AJ, TT, 99 and AA are all in his range and all have us beat and I'd imagine he shows up with one of them much more often than not.

[trystero]

Gross spot. If he's a decent regular then I guess he's got either trip aces or air. He may figure you'll try to steal the pot so he may have gone for a resteal. I'd be more worried about KQ if a flush draw were on board. Anyway, I call on the river because I cannot see him playing AJ/AT/A9 like this 3-handed, so his range appears polarized between set and air - and since a set of tens and nines are even LESS likely, I look him up. Maybe once in a blue moon, too, he shows up with AQ/AK. If he's not really capable of making deep bluffs then you should lay it down.

[Pig P0ker]

i can not see him with A9 or A10, and he would never be that aggressive with an AJ. I still say its AA or AK. We know villain is a pretty tight/solid player, so i do not think he is firing with air here. im sticking with AA.

[fitzinabox]

i put him on qj and pay him off

[mtdesmoines]

NoSup4U, on Tuesday, October 21st, 2008, 9:27 AM, said:

Villain is a 17/14 decent reg so his utg range is pretty tight imo. Let me know what you think his range of hands here is when you post.No Limit Holdem Ring gameBlinds: $2/$46 playersConverterStack sizes:UTG: $704.50UTG+1: $406.00CO: $314.05NoSup4U: $609.60SB: $479.00BB: $93.10Pre-flop: (6 players) NoSup4U is Button with UTG raises to $14, 2 folds, NoSup4U calls, SB folds, BB calls.Flop: ($44, 3 players)BB checks, UTG checks, NoSup4U bets $32, BB folds, UTG raises to $88, NoSup4U calls.Turn: ($220, 2 players)UTG bets $122, NoSup4U calls.River: ($464, 2 players)UTG bets $288, NoSup4U ?????Mark

I don't think I see any reason to get away from this. A competent reg villain's range from UTG is probably a big ace (AK AQ AJ ... also includes AA. You can discount KK QQ JJ after the turn play or lower PP except 66). I really lean toward AK AQ, that's what it seems to me that he plays it like. A villain like this showing up the straight here would be really awkward and inexplicable if he's a competent regular. I think the river is an instacall. He played it SO much like AK AQ... if he has a set of A's, it was a damned good series of value bets and we have to pay if we're playing 9T into a raise. A set of 9's or T's is pretty unlikely, but it happens. But again, I think we don't have any reason to get away from this on the river.Quick question ... Why wouldn't you raise the turn, Mark?

[tskillz187]

I call. Once you flat the flop, you have to pay off these bets imo. I don't think he has AK or AQ very often though, poor spot to value bet on the river. I think he's more likely to have AA, JQss, QQ, KK, or JJ.

[Acid_Knight]

I would doubt that a competent villain fires that 3rd bet with AK or AQ. He really is repping a set or nothing here. If he checked the river, I would believe that he might have AK or AQ, but I dunno. I think I fold because most players probably don't take this line as a bluff, basically, ever.

[Dratj]

mtdesmoines, on Tuesday, October 21st, 2008, 11:44 AM, said:

Quick question ... Why wouldn't you raise the turn, Mark?

Pot size control i think. He can see a showdown for cheaper. Hand Range:AA (AK AQ)-suited or not (AJ A10 A9)suited 10 10, 9 9.JJ is possible. You obv. only beat AK or AQ but it's such a nice value bet on villians part. I think I fold though, not much that I can beat.

[Pig P0ker]

i dont think AJ A10 A9 JJ is possible, by the information we have .. he is a consistent winner and with the raise preflop and the play on the flop i think you can count out these hands. It really looks like AA or an overplayed AK.

[Snamuh]

Acid_Knight, on Tuesday, October 21st, 2008, 5:38 PM, said:

I would doubt that a competent villain fires that 3rd bet with AK or AQ. He really is repping a set or nothing here. If he checked the river, I would believe that he might have AK or AQ, but I dunno. I think I fold because most players probably don't take this line as a bluff, basically, ever.

I agree with this. Additionally, it's hard to imagine JQ is in his UTG opening range. At the same time, ATo probably isn't either but ATs/99/TT/AA all seem plausible. I might call the river if the flop contained a flush draw, but even if he got frisky with something like KQs (with a backdoor FD), he got there. I'd expect AQ/AK to surely slow down and I wouldn't expect these hands or AJ to check/raise this flop anyways. Honestly, I think you see AA here a fair amount of the time. He checks because he's crushing the board and then once you bet, he knows he's repping a very narrow range and you might look him up light.

[AimHigher]

Pig P0ker, on Tuesday, October 21st, 2008, 11:13 PM, said:

i dont think AJ A10 A9 JJ is possible, by the information we have .. he is a consistent winner and with the raise preflop and the play on the flop i think you can count out these hands. It really looks like AA or an overplayed AK.

This is a six max hand, not full ring. You can maybe discount A9 from his range, but it's definitely incorrect to say someone whose preflop raising percentage is 14% is folding AT, AJ or JJ UTG. A9+, 22+ and KQ is a decent preflop range to assign him.Edit: Unless Snamuh posts above me and says he is folding ATo, in which case, I can just shut up.

[Pig P0ker]

yeah your right..but UTG i would say AJ +. and i definitely dont think he would play the flop and turn like that with AJ. i just dont think he is firing those without at least set, and i do not believe he is firing with air (gutshot). also with just two pair i dont see him firing that much on the river, in case hero is slowplaying a set.

[AcesOnFire]

I don't see how this can be a hand weaker than yours. I think anything but a set backs off to the filled up straight and flush draws on that river. I mean if you look at it in the way of 'what does he think I have' he has to atleast put you on some kind of ace.

[NonZeroPossibility]

Yeah, I was gonna say why not raise the turn? Taking a page from DN, how about a min-raise on the turn?I know a lot of you don't like to raise for information, but this is the perfect spot for that.You make it $244 right there on the turn versus calling $122 on the turn and a much bigger bet on the river.It's gonna be reallllll hard for him to put anymore money in the pot unless he does have the AA and you might get a free showdown by min-raising the turn. If you get called and he fires again on the river, then it's a real easy lay-down. That's the way I see it anyway.

[trystero]

NonZeroPossibility, on Tuesday, October 21st, 2008, 8:06 PM, said:

Yeah, I was gonna say why not raise the turn? Taking a page from DN, how about a min-raise on the turn?I know a lot of you don't like to raise for information, but this is the perfect spot for that.You make it $244 right there on the turn versus calling $122 on the turn and a much bigger bet on the river.It's gonna be reallllll hard for him to put anymore money in the pot unless he does have the AA and you might get a free showdown by min-raising the turn. If you get called and he fires again on the river, then it's a real easy lay-down.That's the way I see it anyway.

A turn raise may be correct, but why do we want to fold out everything we beat - why turn our relatively strong hand into a bluff?

[NonZeroPossibility]

trystero, on Tuesday, October 21st, 2008, 5:17 PM, said:

A turn raise may be correct, but why do we want to fold out everything we beat - why turn our relatively strong hand into a bluff?

The point is, is that we don't know if bottom 2 is the best hand or not and it's obvious we're a little lost here. This could very easily be AK we're against.After the action that happened, I wouldn't mind a fold by Villain at all. I'd rather take it down right there than have to face a huge bet on the river and have no ****ing clue what to do.

[NoSup4U]

mtdesmoines, on Tuesday, October 21st, 2008, 11:44 AM, said:

Quick question ... Why wouldn't you raise the turn, Mark?

AcesOnFire, on Tuesday, October 21st, 2008, 4:40 PM, said:

I don't see how this can be a hand weaker than yours. I think anything but a set backs off to the filled up straight and flush draws on that river. I mean if you look at it in the way of 'what does he think I have' he has to atleast put you on some kind of ace.

I didn't raise the turn because of what AcesOnFire said. What must my hand look like to him? I think my range here is some Ax, T9, 87, QJ, maybe JT. When he bet the turn I was like wtf I'm REALLY surprised he bet here because that turn card just clobbers MY range, not his.

NonZeroPossibility, on Tuesday, October 21st, 2008, 5:06 PM, said:

Yeah, I was gonna say why not raise the turn? Taking a page from DN, how about a min-raise on the turn?I know a lot of you don't like to raise for information, but this is the perfect spot for that.You make it $244 right there on the turn versus calling $122 on the turn and a much bigger bet on the river.It's gonna be reallllll hard for him to put anymore money in the pot unless he does have the AA and you might get a free showdown by min-raising the turn. If you get called and he fires again on the river, then it's a real easy lay-down. That's the way I see it anyway.

NonZeroPossibility, on Tuesday, October 21st, 2008, 6:26 PM, said:

The point is, is that we don't know if bottom 2 is the best hand or not and it's obvious we're a little lost here. This could very easily be AK we're against.After the action that happened, I wouldn't mind a fold by Villain at all. I'd rather take it down right there than have to face a huge bet on the river and have no ****ing clue what to do.

I think you answered your own question. You say maybe min raise the turn, and also that its going to be REALLY hard for him to put any more money in the pot without AA. So this negates a turn raise imo. He possibly calls a min turn raise with AK, but if he doesn't shove AK on the turn then he isn't betting AK on the river when we call the turn imo. And if he shoves AK over our min turn raise then we're losing more than if we just call the turn and fold to his AK bet on the river.I ended up folding the river reasonably quickly. I just thought it was a good hand to post because imo because I thought it played out well for hand reading.Preflop we know he's a tight decent regular at 2/4nl, which means he's an ABC style poker nit. He raises utg so I'd give him a range of any pair (I don't know if he raises 66- but we'll assume), AT+, KQs, maybe QJs and KJs?He checks the flop so now I generally give uncreative 2/4nl players a range here of a set being 'tricky', or any underpair to the ace. Possibly AT, and really unlikely a big ace being tricky. (I just don't see people checking AK in this spot much)I bet and he raises me. Now I'm super worried because this smells like a monster. He never has KK here, or AJ, or anything ridiculous outside of the random spazout bluff. But I didn't think there was any reason for him to spaz out vs me.I call the flop and then the turn comes a pretty bad card for him imo and he bets out again. Now I feel like his range is a set, AK, or a bluff here. He still might bet AK because I could have a weaker ace or QJ, but again I think AK just leads the flop most of the time.I call the turn and he fires again on the river. IMO this is really suicidal with AK because any competent villain folds Arag on the turn. Its the thinnest of thin betting AK there I think. So to me he has top two or better in this spot, or a bluff. And with him being a nit and raising utg, I think his range is just super weighted towards stuff that beats me.Mark

[BaseJester]

NoSup4U, on Tuesday, October 21st, 2008, 10:39 PM, said:

Preflop we know he's a tight decent regular at 2/4nl, which means he's an ABC style poker nit. He raises utg so I'd give him a range of any pair (I don't know if he raises 66- but we'll assume), AT+, KQs, maybe QJs and KJs?He checks the flop so now I generally give uncreative 2/4nl players a range here of a set being 'tricky', or any underpair to the ace. Possibly AT, and really unlikely a big ace being tricky. (I just don't see people checking AK in this spot much)I bet and he raises me. Now I'm super worried because this smells like a monster. He never has KK here, or AJ, or anything ridiculous outside of the random spazout bluff. But I didn't think there was any reason for him to spaz out vs me.I call the flop and . . .

It sounds to me like there's an argument for folding on the flop.