Posted 29 April 2012 - 05:49 PM
Hey Daniel,Just registered today when I saw this hand. Looking forward to checking out the forums. Sorry in advance - I tend to talk too much when it comes to strategy, so this probably will end up longer than it needs to be. Here are my opinions-Preflop:This seems somewhat close between calling and shoving, but I would rather shove. Looks like effective stacks were around 39k to start the hand. This is important, as is who covers whom and by how much.Assuming this is 9 handed, there's 6500 in the pot before calling his raise. You're a little bit deeper than I generally like to shove (though I think many of these hot-shot young kid tourney pros would disagree), but I think this is a good spot for it. Ike will be opening very very wide here, especially if he perceives the button and sb as weaker/tighter players. Did he? He'd open less frequently if there were a tough player on the button or in the sb with between 15 and 25k. Was there? His stack matters too, but not as much for how often he opens. I wouldn't be shocked to see him open 100% in this spot, given the right players and stacks involved. I would be shocked if he opened less than 50% of hands, unless there were a very active short stack behind him.Anyways, I didn't run the math, but I'm positive it would show shoving to be very +EV (which means much better than folding). I'd be happy to run through it, by the way, if anyone would like. That's not the whole story, since calling is certainly better than folding too.Analyzing the value of a call is hard. I don't have a method to get an accurate estimate (I haven't tried very hard, since it matters very little in cash games). Calling 88 against Ike's wide range with all the money already in the pot is clearly +EV (compared to folding). I'm just guessing it's less +EV than shoving.Ike is extremely smart and tough, which is even worse for you than extremely smart and less tough, since that type of player would let you get to showdown more easily. You're out of position- regardless of where you rate your postflop skill level vs. Ike's, as long as it's somewhere in the ballpark, you have to agree that position is powerful enough to ensure that he'll have a "postflop advantage" - another thing difficult to assign real $ value to.You have the kind of hand that rarely flops something that you want to get all-in with against his value range, and often flops something that you'd like to take to showdown cheaply, or perhaps to protectAgainst a weak player, I would always call. They'd often let you get to showdown cheaply, and you can out-read and out-manouver them, generating lots of extra EV. (A weaker player would also often have a tighter preflop range, making a shove preflop less profitable)One final consideration: If we somehow knew that the EV of calling and the EV of shoving were the same (in terms of chips), it would still be better to shove. Assuming you don't have 4x his stack or more (in which case you can ignore this), there is value in preserving your tournament life, or the majority of your stack. Our EV comes in different ways, depending on if we call or shove.-If we shove, the overwhelming majority of the time, we pick up 6500 chips. A very small % of the time, we get all in with maybe slightly over 40% equity on average. -If we call, we are much more likely to get stacks in, or to get a sizable part of our stack in before folding or before he folds. This (counterintuitively to some) increases our variance compared to shoving preflop, which is especially bad in tournaments.I think it was Sklansky (your fave) that showed that the value of each chip you gain in a tournament is less than the value of each chip you lose... or something like that. Point being, it's important to minimize variance, and to avoid coinflips for your stack or large parts of it... even more important if you have a decent skill advantage over the field.*It's also an option to 3bet to a smaller amount than all-in. This makes you and your ranges tougher, but I think works out poorly given tournament life considerations. I'm not sure how often Ike calls, or if he'd only shove or fold. I think it makes more sense, and is much easier, to shove hands like 88, A5s, and AQo and to 3bet smaller with air and hands like JJ+.Flop:I love the way you played the flop, and it's something I don't do enough of in tournaments. My instinctive reaction is to call and figure it out later, but I think your play is so much better. I'm not sure if it's for the same reasons I like it or not (or if it was based on some very cool reads), but I'd rather hear your thought process than get into mine.Nice hand.-Phil