New Challenge: Movin' On Up

[babylondonks 5]

I normally play between 9 and 12 tables. WTSD% 30.1 W$SD% 47.3

Yeah I'd say that's most likely a leak, going to showdown that much and winning that rarely. Maybe try 4 tabling or something for a session and just really focusing on every decision?

[Nashtak 0]

http://www.pokervariancesimulator.fr/

The higher the win rate, the less variance?

[droberts 3]

The higher the win rate, the less variance?

thats because u hardly put in losing sessions if ur always winning.. so u cant really downswing a whole lot if u have a big winrate.

[Nashtak 0]

thats because u hardly put in losing sessions if ur always winning.. so u cant really downswing a whole lot if u have a big winrate.

I would have imagined a slighter smaller yet very similar variance, simply pointing upward. Well that's good to know. Now i can blame myself for downswings (at some degree).

[droberts 3]

variance and downswings are super super normal in poker.like if u didnt ever downswing.. u would be a freak at poker.. or a superuser

[babylondonks 5]

wat, did you even look at that thing? Throw in 1k instances of 100k hands at 8bb/100 with a 120 standard deviation. Keeping in mind that 8bb/100 is absolutely killing the games

[KosinTrouble 0]

wat, did you even look at that thing? Throw in 1k instances of 100k hands at 8bb/100 with a 120 standard deviation. Keeping in mind that 8bb/100 is absolutely killing the games

Sorry newbie questions incoming....8bb/100, I keep hearing people saying that, but I donnt fully understand what that is. is the bb, big bets or big blinds? If it is a big bet, what is considered a big bet? ohh hell I dont understand the above statement at all!!! Can you explain what you mean by all that please. When you say 1k instances of 100k hands... Do you mean you are breaking out 1million hands into 1k chunks of 100k hands? What do you mean by 120 standard deviation. Sorry, about the stupid question just want to understand the statement.ThanksKosin Trouble

[KosinTrouble 0]

I did see one of the DC videos where they suggest you might as well just shovel into the short stackers when it's bvb and you have a hand. Can't remember which one it was though and it was probably against the super shorties that play on stars.

That was balugawhale or something in Coaching Kristy episode where he talks about that. And also Grindcore talks about it in The Thin Red Line. Basically the scenario's are regular short stakers in games when they are bvb will shove with a huge range. a-5,a10+, suited connectors and pretty much 77+. So if you have a hand like AJ+ or pocket 10+ chances are you are ahead of their range and is worth a call. Obviously if there is history there, then take that into account.Kosin Trouble

[fighter 4]

That was balugawhale or something in Coaching Kristy episode where he talks about that. And also Grindcore talks about it in The Thin Red Line. Basically the scenario's are regular short stakers in games when they are bvb will shove with a huge range. a-5,a10+, suited connectors and pretty much 77+. So if you have a hand like AJ+ or pocket 10+ chances are you are ahead of their range and is worth a call. Obviously if there is history there, then take that into account.Kosin Trouble

It is a very common idea. It is called the Gap concept. Google it.

[babylondonks 5]

Sorry newbie questions incoming....8bb/100, I keep hearing people saying that, but I donnt fully understand what that is. is the bb, big bets or big blinds? If it is a big bet, what is considered a big bet? ohh hell I dont understand the above statement at all!!! Can you explain what you mean by all that please. When you say 1k instances of 100k hands... Do you mean you are breaking out 1million hands into 1k chunks of 100k hands? What do you mean by 120 standard deviation. Sorry, about the stupid question just want to understand the statement.ThanksKosin Trouble

bb = big blinds/ So at 0.05/0.10nl 8bb/100 is winning at 80 cents per hundred hands. a big bet is twice the big blind (because in limit games the big bet is twice the big blind,. so say at 1/2 limit the big blind is $1)What I mean is that in the linked simulator it asks for how many hands you want it to simulate, so I want it to simulate 100k hands one thousand different ways. The standard deviation is the square root of your variance and is a stat found in HEM somewhere. My 6max standard deviation is around 119 bb/100. If you put that in you can see that over 100k hands even a very big winner can potentially lose like 50 buyins over 100 hands and still be a longterm winner at the game. VaRIANCE is crazy

[KosinTrouble 0]

bb = big blinds/ So at 0.05/0.10nl 8bb/100 is winning at 80 cents per hundred hands. a big bet is twice the big blind (because in limit games the big bet is twice the big blind,. so say at 1/2 limit the big blind is $1)What I mean is that in the linked simulator it asks for how many hands you want it to simulate, so I want it to simulate 100k hands one thousand different ways. The standard deviation is the square root of your variance and is a stat found in HEM somewhere. My 6max standard deviation is around 119 bb/100. If you put that in you can see that over 100k hands even a very big winner can potentially lose like 50 buyins over 100 hands and still be a longterm winner at the game. VaRIANCE is crazy

AWSOME! Thank you so much for the explination Babylondonks! Greatly appriciated. So basically if my hem, if it says my bb/100 is 8+ then I am doing good. When I get home I will check into the standard deviation in hem as I am curious on what it says for me.Kosin Trouble

[trystero 0]

I'm loving my varianceproof nittiness: Standard deviation is 72bb/100 at 10nl, 95bb/100 at 25nl. Makes sense. Kosin, to distinguish between big blinds and big bets you usually capitalize "BB" to represent big bets.

[KosinTrouble 0]

So for shits and giggles last night, I tried playing a 25NL table for a few hours... Ended up doing not too bad, didnt lose any money. So I think I might try it again tonight. I know its a big jump, jumping two stakes in less than a month. And I dont think it will be a perma jump yet. I set aside a certain amount of my br to give it a try. if I lose that amount then I will just say, ehhh whatever and stay at the 10nl longer.One thing I did notice, its sometimes hard to just think in bb and not$$$. At 10nl i do a 4bb raise and its like, yeah whatever .40... totally different when I just do the auto 4 click and all of a sudden see 1.00 in the pot... Not that it bothers me if I lose it, its just seeing those numbers in the pots is a lot different...Kosin Trouble

[Ninja Ace 1]

bb = big blinds/ So at 0.05/0.10nl 8bb/100 is winning at 80 cents per hundred hands. a big bet is twice the big blind (because in limit games the big bet is twice the big blind,. so say at 1/2 limit the big blind is $1)What I mean is that in the linked simulator it asks for how many hands you want it to simulate, so I want it to simulate 100k hands one thousand different ways. The standard deviation is the square root of your variance and is a stat found in HEM somewhere. My 6max standard deviation is around 119 bb/100. If you put that in you can see that over 100k hands even a very big winner can potentially lose like 50 buyins over 100 hands and still be a longterm winner at the game. VaRIANCE is crazy

or 20 BI over 10k hands... Hidoes any bank accept sklansky $?

[babylondonks 5]

AWSOME! Thank you so much for the explination Babylondonks! Greatly appriciated. So basically if my hem, if it says my bb/100 is 8+ then I am doing good. When I get home I will check into the standard deviation in hem as I am curious on what it says for me.Kosin Trouble

I mean to be sure 8bb+/100 is ridiculously good these days, particlarly at like 50nl+. There are only five or so regs I know of who win at more than 6bb/100 at 200nl on FTP over 300k hands or more. So it shows how difficult it is.

[KingJames 11]

Villain is 26/25/4.0 over 57 hands, 100% cbet (3 samples)After he 3bet clicks it back, what's the best plan?Feral Cow Poker Hand ConverterFull Tilt No-Limit Hold'em $0.05/$0.10 - 5 playersBB Ramtough1: $10.00 UTG LuckyNikita: $11.41 CO Hans-Ueli: $12.67 Button Hero: $10.30 SB Harleymama11: $7.02 Preflop: ($0.15) Hero is Button with (5 players)Hans-Ueli raises to $0.35, Hero calls $0.35, 2 foldsFlop: ($0.85) (3 players)Hans-Ueli bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.40, Hans-Ueli raises to $2.30,

[KingJames 11]

Villain is 21/15/1.5 over 35 hands, 0/1 fold BB to steal and 0/11 3bet opportunitiesCows play poker with cow chipsFull Tilt No-Limit Hold'em $0.05/$0.10 - 6 playersUTG Reaper009: $5.83 UTG+1 bizuodalao: $10.82 CO dr-doronr: $3.52 Button notallowed: $10.00 SB Hero: $14.62 BB DarkyCash: $9.56 Preflop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with (6 players)4 folds, Hero raises to $0.35, DarkyCash calls $0.25Flop: ($0.70) (2 players)Hero bets $0.40, DarkyCash calls $0.40Turn: ($1.50) (2 players)Hero bets $0.80, DarkyCash raises to $2,

[trystero 0]

Hand 1, shovel.gifHand 2, reraise to $4.50/ call

[QED 4]

Villain is 26/25/4.0 over 57 hands, 100% cbet (3 samples)After he 3bet clicks it back, what's the best plan?Feral Cow Poker Hand ConverterFull Tilt No-Limit Hold'em $0.05/$0.10 - 5 playersBB Ramtough1: $10.00 UTG LuckyNikita: $11.41 CO Hans-Ueli: $12.67 Button Hero: $10.30 SB Harleymama11: $7.02 Preflop: ($0.15) Hero is Button with (5 players)Hans-Ueli raises to $0.35, Hero calls $0.35, 2 foldsFlop: ($0.85) (3 players)Hans-Ueli bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.40, Hans-Ueli raises to $2.30,

Unless you think he has a completely crazy range preflop I think I'd probably just jam here, looks like we are in pretty good shape and he doesn't want to go anywhere. Board: 2c 5s 6sDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 78.054% 77.42% 00.63% 52119 427.00 { 2d2s }Hand 1: 21.946% 21.31% 00.63% 14347 427.00 { 55+, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, KsQs, KsJs, QsJs, JsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 65s }

[KingJames 11]

Broke 40k... If only my first wish went better...

[shynepo3 0]

Broke 40k... If only my first wish went better...

what is that exactly?

[trystero 0]

lol that score is so sad. Do you have all of your fingers?shynepo, Google "Robot Unicorn."

[babylondonks 5]

Villain is 26/25/4.0 over 57 hands, 100% cbet (3 samples)After he 3bet clicks it back, what's the best plan?Feral Cow Poker Hand ConverterFull Tilt No-Limit Hold'em $0.05/$0.10 - 5 playersBB Ramtough1: $10.00 UTG LuckyNikita: $11.41 CO Hans-Ueli: $12.67 Button Hero: $10.30 SB Harleymama11: $7.02 Preflop: ($0.15) Hero is Button with (5 players)Hans-Ueli raises to $0.35, Hero calls $0.35, 2 foldsFlop: ($0.85) (3 players)Hans-Ueli bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.40, Hans-Ueli raises to $2.30,

jam

Villain is 21/15/1.5 over 35 hands, 0/1 fold BB to steal and 0/11 3bet opportunitiesCows play poker with cow chipsFull Tilt No-Limit Hold'em $0.05/$0.10 - 6 playersUTG Reaper009: $5.83 UTG+1 bizuodalao: $10.82 CO dr-doronr: $3.52 Button notallowed: $10.00 SB Hero: $14.62 BB DarkyCash: $9.56 Preflop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with (6 players)4 folds, Hero raises to $0.35, DarkyCash calls $0.25Flop: ($0.70) (2 players)Hero bets $0.40, DarkyCash calls $0.40Turn: ($1.50) (2 players)Hero bets $0.80, DarkyCash raises to $2,

flat, c/c rivers (except for a 4 or A obv)

[trystero 0]

flat and c/c rly? That's an easy raise imo

[fighter 4]

flat and c/c rly? That's an easy raise imo

he is only playing 15% of hands. Now there is 6 combos of sets. 1 combo of 3s4s With 1x4 left in the deck, even if he is defending with 54o (unlikely), that is still only 4 combos. So for us to be ahead of his value range here he has to either 1. raise dry flops with sets often as well as defend with 54o2. over play a hand like TPTK or overpairRaising isn't optimal as we want to keep his bluff range open because we are not that far ahead, if we even are.