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Good call on Celek!

 

sorry I wasn't around to answer your other questions on Sunday, saw them later. Celek and Powell were (IMO) the 2 most mispriced players on the slate, since they had players ahead of them go down injured after the prices locked, so you got two starters in great matchups at almost min price.(speaking for DK here, I don't play on Fan Duel, but I assume they were cheap there too)

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Not clutch.

Glad you won! I'll probably be scalin back the volume for the playoffs, since I never feel too confident on short slates, but we'll see how I feel about my lineup once the weekend rolls around.   Af

At the Pens practice facility and Rick Tochett ends up standing next to me. It took every ounce of self control to not engage him in a conversation about the Rick Tochett Experience.

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sorry I wasn't around to answer your other questions on Sunday, saw them later. Celek and Powell were (IMO) the 2 most mispriced players on the slate, since they had players ahead of them go down injured after the prices locked, so you got two starters in great matchups at almost min price.(speaking for DK here, I don't play on Fan Duel, but I assume they were cheap there too)

 

I couldn't find Powell on FD.

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week 11 balance: $1,600

 

week 11 bets:

 

Minnesota -2.5 $1,300

Oakland +7 $100

NY Giants +10.5 $100

Dallas +4.5 $100

 

JT Miller finally took a hit last week and dropped to $129,000, though that's kind of inconsequential to me now. Need to double up every week for the rest of the year.

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my cash lineup on DK this week. Entered it into $218 worth of double ups.

 

QB Drew Brees $6800

RB Melvin Gordon $7600

RB Kareem Hunt $8000

WR Jamison Crowder $4300

WR Bruce Ellington $3000

WR Sterling Shepard $6300

TE Travis Kelce $7300

FLEX Rex Burkhead $3600

DEF LA Chargers $3000

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I have a fairly large pool where I’m first place and need a big win.

 

Who would you start.

 

Matthew Stafford at Chi

Kirk Cousins at New Orleans.

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neither are in a great spot but I'd go with Cousins because they will likely be behind and forced to throw the ball a lot and that game could turn into a shootout (Unlike lions/Bears)

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my cash lineup on DK this week. Entered it into $218 worth of double ups.

 

QB Drew Brees $6800

RB Melvin Gordon $7600

RB Kareem Hunt $8000

WR Jamison Crowder $4300

WR Bruce Ellington $3000

WR Sterling Shepard $6300

TE Travis Kelce $7300

FLEX Rex Burkhead $3600

DEF LA Chargers $3000

 

Cash game:

Brady

Hunt

Lewis

Shep

Crabtree

Landry

Kelce

Chargers

 

GPP:

Cutler

Gordon

Burkhead

Cooks

Hill

Landry

Gronk

Chargers

 

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my cash lineup on DK this week. Entered it into $218 worth of double ups.

 

QB Drew Brees $6800

RB Melvin Gordon $7600

RB Kareem Hunt $8000

WR Jamison Crowder $4300

WR Bruce Ellington $3000

WR Sterling Shepard $6300

TE Travis Kelce $7300

FLEX Rex Burkhead $3600

DEF LA Chargers $3000

 

I tinkered again. Hopefully this goes better than the other times I've tinkered.

 

Out:

Melvin Gordon

Chargers D

Drew Brees

 

In:

Brandin Cooks

Tom Brady

Baltimore D

 

 

 

reasoning:

 

Melvin isn't actually that good as a real life football player. His immense fantasy value comes from his massive usage. I still think he's a good play this week but his usage has been dropping in the last few weeks as Austin Ekelar ahs been eating into his playing time. I think there's a sub-10 point floor here in a worst case scenario if he loses any red zone work. I decided I liked Cooks floor and upside equally as much at $1000 less. With Hogan out, and against the raiders, who are really bad at defending against WRs playing on the outside, Cooks should get 8+ targets.

 

Once I made that change, I had some extra cash to play with. I went up from Brees to Brady. Not much to say there. Both are good plays but Brady definitely is a stronger play. Patriots are a more pass centric offense than the Saints at this point. Then decided there wasn't really anywhere else on my lineup that I wanted to upgrade with my last $500, so went up to Baltimore D. Chargers D is going to be really popular (probably 50+% in cash games), so I hope they don't go off. I doubt the Bills are going to let Peterman chuck the ball much, and wouldn't be surprised to see them go run heavy or go with a lot of short throws, so I wouldn't be surprised if there aren't many turnovers in that game.

 

 

final cash game lineup (for now)

 

QB Tom Brady

RB Kareem Hunt

RB Rex Burkhead

WR Jamison Crowder

WR Bruce Ellington

WR Sterling Shepard

TE Travis Kelce

FLEX Brandin Cooks

DEF Baltimore

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I tinkered again. Hopefully this goes better than the other times I've tinkered.

 

Out:

Melvin Gordon

Chargers D

Drew Brees

 

In:

Brandin Cooks

Tom Brady

Baltimore D

 

 

 

reasoning:

 

Melvin isn't actually that good as a real life football player. His immense fantasy value comes from his massive usage. I still think he's a good play this week but his usage has been dropping in the last few weeks as Austin Ekelar ahs been eating into his playing time. I think there's a sub-10 point floor here in a worst case scenario if he loses any red zone work. I decided I liked Cooks floor and upside equally as much at $1000 less. With Hogan out, and against the raiders, who are really bad at defending against WRs playing on the outside, Cooks should get 8+ targets.

 

Once I made that change, I had some extra cash to play with. I went up from Brees to Brady. Not much to say there. Both are good plays but Brady definitely is a stronger play. Patriots are a more pass centric offense than the Saints at this point. Then decided there wasn't really anywhere else on my lineup that I wanted to upgrade with my last $500, so went up to Baltimore D. Chargers D is going to be really popular (probably 50+% in cash games), so I hope they don't go off. I doubt the Bills are going to let Peterman chuck the ball much, and wouldn't be surprised to see them go run heavy or go with a lot of short throws, so I wouldn't be surprised if there aren't many turnovers in that game.

 

 

final cash game lineup (for now)

 

QB Tom Brady

RB Kareem Hunt

RB Rex Burkhead

WR Jamison Crowder

WR Bruce Ellington

WR Sterling Shepard

TE Travis Kelce

FLEX Brandin Cooks

DEF Baltimore

 

Sterling Shepard is likely out so I went back to chargers D and went with Golden Tate (6800)

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Result: scored 156 points which was comfortably good for a full double up. Won $218 which brings the account to $501. Cash lineup has won 8/9 weeks.

 

Double up as well. Missed a cash in a free roll by 1.4 pts.

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ok. Thanksgiving cash game lineup. Entering it in $100 worth of double ups.

 

QB Phillip Rivers $6100

RB Melvin Gordon $8100

RB Byron Marshall $3200

WR Adam Thielen $7600

WR Keenan Allen $7300

WR Josh Doctson $4700

TE Vernon Davis $5500

FLEX Orleans Darkwa $4600

DEF Chargers $2800

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GPP lineup thanksgiving

 

QB Kirk Cousins $7100

RB Jerick Mckinnon $5200

RB Alfred Morris $4800

WR Golden Tate $7300

WR Adam Thielen $7600

WR Ryan Grant $3700

TE Even Engram $6100

FLEX Vernon Davis $5500

DEF Redskins $3600

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ok. Thanksgiving cash game lineup. Entering it in $100 worth of double ups.

 

QB Phillip Rivers $6100

RB Melvin Gordon $8100

RB Byron Marshall $3200

WR Adam Thielen $7600

WR Keenan Allen $7300

WR Josh Doctson $4700

TE Vernon Davis $5500

FLEX Orleans Darkwa $4600

DEF Chargers $2800

 

 

tinkering as usual. worked out ok last week.

 

Dropped:

Rivers

Byron Marshall

Keenan Allen

 

added:

Case Keenum

Jerrick Mckinnon

Golden Tate

 

 

 

 

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