MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 curious why you thought Salazar vs KC was a good matchup? As far as I know, KC is a pretty good hitting club, and I know lately Zobrist, Hosmer and Moustakas especially have been very hot. Salazar can have monster games though. (not knowing whats stats DFS uses, just my own AL only pool stats of ER, WHIP, K, W) Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted September 16, 2015 Author Share Posted September 16, 2015 curious why you thought Salazar vs KC was a good matchup? As far as I know, KC is a pretty good hitting club, and I know lately Zobrist, Hosmer and Moustakas especially have been very hot. Salazar can have monster games though. (not knowing whats stats DFS uses, just my own AL only pool stats of ER, WHIP, K, W) The simulator I am using has Salazar ranked very high today..Price, Gonzalez and Salazar..Also Iwakuma...The simulator gives points for certain things ..Salazar is getting points today for Ballpark, Wind, Umpire and the fact that his team is favourite in Vegas..Wins give you points..Also things like "price lower on DraftKings than Fan Duel" and SO s per nine innings gives a very good rating for tonight. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted September 16, 2015 Author Share Posted September 16, 2015 Arp : Here is the scoring at Draft Kings for baseball: Hitters will accumulate points as follows:Single = +3 PTs Double = +5 PTs Triple = +8 PTs Home Run = +10 PTs Run Batted In = +2 PTs Run = +2 PTs Base on Balls = +2 PTs Hit By Pitch = +2 PTs Stolen Base = +5 PTs Caught Stealing = -2 PTs Pitchers will accumulate points as follows:Inning Pitched = +2.25 PTs Strike Out = +2 PTs Win = +4 PTs Earned Run Allowed = -2 PTs Hit Against = -0.6 PTs Base on Balls Against = -0.6 PTs Hit Batsman = -0.6 PTs Complete Game = +2.5 PTs Complete Game Shut Out = +2.5 PTs No Hitter = +5 PTs Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted September 16, 2015 Author Share Posted September 16, 2015 Take it FWIW, I am predicting(well the simulator is) that David Peralta will have a big game. He has the highest number of any player tonight. Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 I m still very new to this and have a long way to go..Just found a website with all that info and trying to put it together myself..I know when my picks fall flat tonight you guys will all laugh..But what the hell, I will post my starting lineup. I don't think anyone here is good enough to laugh and even if any of us were that good we probably still wouldn't laugh but offer advice instead. Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Serge's MLB Fantasy Lineup..I have entered several big low limit tourneys as well as 10 heads up $1 matches. P David Price $12500 vs Atlanta P Danny Salazar $9500 vs KC C Jarrod Saltamacchia $2400 vs Arizona 1B Joe Mauer $3600 vs San Diego 2B Brian Dozier $4300 vs Detroit 3B Miguel Sano $4700 vs Detroit SS Daniel Castro $2000 vs Toronto OF Eduardo Escobar $3300 vs Detroit OF Aaron Hicks $3700 vs Detroit OF David Peralta $3300 vs San Diego I'm very interested in how you do with the heads up matches. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted September 16, 2015 Author Share Posted September 16, 2015 Ok I am in for $16.. $10 in $1 heads up matches. $3 in the $150K Moonshot with a first prize of $12000 $2 in the $1k Flare with a first prize of $200 $1 in the $750 Solo Shot with a first prize of $75 Sweat with me as I test my research and theories... 1 Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 I'm very interested in how you do with the heads up matches. not a shot at all at Serge, and I thought even he had said, that lineup he set up was more of a "all in" play for a mega-win/big payout/1000 entries game. having that many Minn guys doesnt seem like an ideal play long term for a heads up matchup, does it? Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 I don't think anyone here is good enough to laugh and even if any of us were that good we probably still wouldn't laugh but offer advice instead. like you said, even if i was good enough, which i def am not, Id rather use this thread as a positive place to help each other Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 strictly a baseball suggestion....Id take a chance on Yankees tonight, as SP Archer for Tampa, while having a great year overall, has been a little shaky lately. Maybe due to overall numbers Yanks will be underpriced. If recent Archer games are not taken into account, they may be a good play. I have Archer in my pool, following him closely. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted September 16, 2015 Author Share Posted September 16, 2015 not a shot at all at Serge, and I thought even he had said, that lineup he set up was more of a "all in" play for a mega-win/big payout/1000 entries game. having that many Minn guys doesnt seem like an ideal play long term for a heads up matchup, does it? You are correct. It's a bad strategy what I did. It's a big tourney lineup. Oh well. Let's see how we do Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Stacking is a good strategy in big tournaments but not in heads up matches....that's what you're saying, right? Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Is it me, or arent all these categories an even more sure way to ensure the 5% beat the other 95%? More details to research, less variance. Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Stacking is a good strategy in big tournaments but not in heads up matches....that's what you're saying, right? was that directed at me? yes, thats what I was saying, or at least, I assume that based on little knowledge of DFS. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted September 16, 2015 Author Share Posted September 16, 2015 Stacking is a good strategy in big tournaments but not in heads up matches....that's what you're saying, right? Correct Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 lol, im watching Salazar vs KC. Got me hooked! great first inning, only 9 pitches, and he was throwing well. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted September 17, 2015 Author Share Posted September 17, 2015 A rainout in Minnesota would be devastating. Rookie mistake I should of kept closer eye on weather Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Salazar/price combo is looking good, hopefully the twins rip it up for you Link to post Share on other sites
gruven 530 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Can't win big field tourneys without stacking. Probably the first thing you need to know to get away from being a fish. Oh, and just for giggles.... with the early games done and late games underway,one of my lineups is currently bouncing around 8-10 place in the $27. That's worth a few grand if it holds, which it won.t Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Little bit of research will tell us that Hisashi Iwakuma is pitching today with Brian ONora as the home plate Ump...Onora is ranked high as an ump for a pitcher. Also the Twins batters are rated a bit high today as the wind in Target Field in Minnesota is blowing Right to Left currently at 14 mph..Detroit has leftie Daniel Norris on the mound, it bodes well for righties. There is a plethora of these info out there, that you can use to build your lineups and have and edge over the average button pusher. More information is better than less information if you are playing anyway. But more information is worse than less information if it gets you to make plays that you otherwise would have sat out, since (no offense), you and I are both incapable of appropriately using any kind of detailed information. There are a ton of factors, and guys who spend 24/7 on stats and/or have math doctorates disagree on things like how descriptive vs predictive something is, regression factors, etc. As a simple example, Daniel Norris is a leftie, but in his brief MLB career has a higher strikeout percentage and a lower xFIP (often considered the best descriptor of overall pitching quality) against lefties (this is true). Onora may be a pitchers ump, but if you get into even more detail, most umps aren't just "hitter" or "pitcher" umps but have even more specific tendencies, like higher strike calls against high or low pitchers, or against breaking pitches, etc. It's possible that Onora's tendencies actually favour Iwakuma's opponent more than him, and while his overall stats may get a tiny boost, he is less likely to win overall if the opposing pitcher fits the ump's tendencies better (I made this one up). You don't have to consider 100 factors, but there is the danger of not fully considering or understanding or regressing a factor and having it lead you to make a bet you wouldn't otherwise make. Of course, this is a question of efficiency. If the amount of bets you're placing are driven more by entertainment than by an expectation of winning, then knowing more is always better than knowing less, even if occasionally it means you make a bad bet on a pitcher with weird reverse splits or something. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted September 17, 2015 Author Share Posted September 17, 2015 Ok I am in for $16.. $10 in $1 heads up matches. $3 in the $150K Moonshot with a first prize of $12000 $2 in the $1k Flare with a first prize of $200 $1 in the $750 Solo Shot with a first prize of $75 Sweat with me as I test my research and theories... So we didnt cash any of the big tourneys, but we managed to win 6 out of 10 on the heads up...For a whopping .60 profit on the heads up..We scored 105.50 pts on the night In the $150K moonshot we finished 24437 out of 57498...11780 cashed. In the $1k Flare we finished 274 out of 575...100 cashed. In the $750 Solo Shot we finished 408 out of 862,,,175 cashed. Overall not a disaster day as we showed a profit on the heads up..We werent too far off the money as we were about 20pts out of a cashing position. I think we did really well on our pitching matchups...Especially on Danny Salazar who was only 5.5% owned. We were off on the Daniel Norris matchup, even though Sano managed to have a decent game. Our pitching basically carried us to victory. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted September 17, 2015 Author Share Posted September 17, 2015 More information is better than less information if you are playing anyway. But more information is worse than less information if it gets you to make plays that you otherwise would have sat out, since (no offense), you and I are both incapable of appropriately using any kind of detailed information. There are a ton of factors, and guys who spend 24/7 on stats and/or have math doctorates disagree on things like how descriptive vs predictive something is, regression factors, etc. As a simple example, Daniel Norris is a leftie, but in his brief MLB career has a higher strikeout percentage and a lower xFIP (often considered the best descriptor of overall pitching quality) against lefties (this is true). Onora may be a pitchers ump, but if you get into even more detail, most umps aren't just "hitter" or "pitcher" umps but have even more specific tendencies, like higher strike calls against high or low pitchers, or against breaking pitches, etc. It's possible that Onora's tendencies actually favour Iwakuma's opponent more than him, and while his overall stats may get a tiny boost, he is less likely to win overall if the opposing pitcher fits the ump's tendencies better (I made this one up). You don't have to consider 100 factors, but there is the danger of not fully considering or understanding or regressing a factor and having it lead you to make a bet you wouldn't otherwise make. Of course, this is a question of efficiency. If the amount of bets you're placing are driven more by entertainment than by an expectation of winning, then knowing more is always better than knowing less, even if occasionally it means you make a bad bet on a pitcher with weird reverse splits or something. I dont necessarily disagree..However I was just giving examples of a couple of stats..Those two things are maybe 2 out 50 trends available for every player. If we notice that a significant number of trends point in our favor, then we pound it. I think its an instance where we treat info like we do in poker...When I am making a decision in Poker I take many factors before I make my decision..Factors like previous action, the way the guy is dressed, conversation we have had before the hand...Everything is powerful info..I dont think we can ever have too much info ....Its how we decipher and utilize this info to our advantage. Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 wow rake is 10% across the board? Is that a low limits thing, or doesnt matter the stakes/heads up or tourney. So you bet $16, you won $6, rake took away $1, you are left with $5, correct? Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted September 17, 2015 Author Share Posted September 17, 2015 Golf is one of my favourite sports for DFS and this week we have the BMW open...Its a bit of a unique DFS tourney as there is no cut and all players will play 4 rounds. Cheer us on as we have entered the $3 Drive the Green event where we can win $100K for first place. Our lineup: Bubba Watson $10200 Jim Furyk $10000 Charley Hoffman $8100 Billy Horschel $7500 Kevin Na $7200 Brendon Todd $7000 Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted September 17, 2015 Author Share Posted September 17, 2015 wow rake is 10% across the board? Is that a low limits thing, or doesnt matter the stakes/heads up or tourney. So you bet $16, you won $6, rake took away $1, you are left with $5, correct? not quite accourate..Just take the 10 heads up for example. I bet 10 $1 tourneys. Winner of each tourney gets $1.80....10%(20 cents) goes to DK... I won 6 of the 10 for $10.80.... Currently there is a $3 huge PGA tourney that I entered..They are GUARANTEEING $700K...Max entries 268300..If they reach max they will rake $104000..However currently there are only 225000 entries, with about 25 minutes left Link to post Share on other sites
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now