Jump to content

Daily Fantasy Sports. Lets All Make Some Money


Recommended Posts

You guys know this better than me, but on poker sites, wasnt there a way to look up your competition, and sort of direct yourself to the table at which bad players were playing? You know, Chris goes on, looks up some guy names FRANCISWHALERNATION, sees Im a total fish, and plays at my table. Am I off?

 

Do we know is DFS allows that?

Can't do it. You can see all the players playing a tournament and how many lineups they have in, but not until it's started. No bumhunting. To the pros, we're ALL bums.
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 563
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Omfg they changed it. I won     Gshhshdhshhshsjejehbs

Scored 154 points and cashed all double ups comfortably. My alternate lineup with Antonio Brown would have scored about 135 and not cashed.   2/2 this year so far

Got a sweat. If the early game in the NFL finishes with no major changes, I win 5K.

 

 

lol, you wrote this just as I was asking my question.

so now that we know Dale's name on DFS, I can look him up and see how hes done?

 

I was referring to players as in athletes

Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

lol, you wrote this just as I was asking my question.

so now that we know Dale's name on DFS, I can look him up and see how hes done?

 

Haha

 

$0.00 wagered

$0.00 winnings

 

I'll keep you updated lol

Link to post
Share on other sites

All I am saying is there are lots of player's who's price on DK is $X, but who's actual value is >X or <X, and you can identify some of these players with some relatively simple research. The DK pricing system seems to be fairly inefficient and exploitable. Whether this is enough to be profitable for the guy doing just a little more research than the average Joe? again, I have no earthly clue.

 

My last post came off poorly - it was meant as a compliment towards you. And I do, generally agree, that there is the potential for there to be winning opportunities in a market with betting overlays, a lot of fish, etc, if you play it smart. I think the sites have to change if they want to attract non-pros for the long haul, but in the meantime, if you can stay away from tournaments where a professional betting model gets to play you 500 times, then no reason there can't be money to be made, as well as some fun!

 

I suspect online poker is pretty similar.

 

I think the difference is on a gross vs net basis. Go on Pokerstars right now and you'll see the top players winning a fraction of a percent of money, because of course they are only playing a few of the thousand of games going on. So the fishes can pass money back and forth, and the little guys only need to be able to regularly beat little guys to eke a small profit, though of course the total dollars won will still be hugely stacked for the pros.

 

Conversely, the stat I think Chris is referring to is 90% of all the prizes are won by pros, which wouldn't compare. For bigger tournaments, it really is like if the top players could enter hundreds of times, and somehow manage those hundreds of entries without a loss in efficiency. How often would me or you ever win? For the smaller tournaments, I have no idea. If the scoring is the same as the big ones, I don't see any reason why the pros wouldn't enter it, but maybe it doesn't work like that.

 

And of course, the thing I have pretended is that all the pros know what they're doing and are really good at it. It is still early and you can bet there are a bunch of guys out there who think they have it modelled and are entering hundreds of times, but are actually long-term losers and putting up big overlays.

 

Very good points...

 

Do we believe that Hockey might be a better option for the hardcore hockey guy as the amount of people involved in fantasy hockey is so small compared to Football? Seems like EVERYONE here plays fantasy football..From the traditional gambler to the elementary teacher...

 

If an offensive lineman misses practice on Wednesday its headline news on ESPN...If Ryan Oreilly missed practice, doubt it makes news.

 

Similar to what I said above, in the early days, you're going to have people with bad models, are overaggressive, etc. Some guy develops a baseball model that wins big, and he's sure he has it figured out and does the same with hockey, but hey, hockey is different, and all of a sudden you guys with a lifetime of hockey knowledge are against a guy who can't get his model right and dumps a few hundred thousand of his baseball winnings because he doesn't realize that when rotoworld says O'Reilly is being replaced by Joe "minor league scoring champ" Smith, it is really the second-line center who benefits, and Joe Smith might get 7 minutes on the 4th line.

 

You do miss out on significant overlays from Joe Shmoe who bets the Cowboys every week, but I bet a few guys with real hockey expertise could make some good plays in the next year or two with everything so new, and with lots of new money not realizing how hard hockey is, or football players looking for something to keep their attention mid-week.

Link to post
Share on other sites

if it Is true that 90% of all prizes are won by pros, then that does not bode well for the future of DFS.

 

We can talk all we want about Black Friday in April/The poker thing, but wasnt North American online poker already beginning a downturn and dying off a little?

At some point, fish like me say "eh, Im not winning, this isnt fun". Dont they? I sure did after only a couple of hundred dollars years and years ago.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know if this will see the same fall off. It's a lot easier to wager $5, pick a lineup and root for the guys you picked than it is to sit down and play poker for hours trying to win a few bucks.

Link to post
Share on other sites

People buy lottery tickets all the time. This is the same for the fish only they get to root for their balls.

 

I would guess the majority of players are oblivious to the existence of DFS pros and the tools they use.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know if this will see the same fall off. It's a lot easier to wager $5, pick a lineup and root for the guys you picked than it is to sit down and play poker for hours trying to win a few bucks.

 

good point. requires much less concentration/time.

you also make a really good point that maybe most people FOR NOW, do not know about the sharks. While I am guessing soon they will, I guess they havent figured it out.

 

I'm really curious to see the groups of friends I do my hockey pools with over the next couple of weeks, and their responses/involvement with DFS.

Link to post
Share on other sites

You guys are missing a huge point. Significant percentage of DFS players just don't care about sharks, edges, stats. They do it for enjoyment and a chance to turn a measly $20 into $2million.

 

There are 100s of casino games that have been out for decades and there is significant data of house edge and casino hold. People still flock to these games.

 

Some table games games like Caribbean stud and variants have edge of numbers like 30 percent. People love the games and the action.

 

Saying that DFS is a solved by few( my research showed there are less than 500 true sharks) will do nothing to the masses.

 

Having said that I'm pouring significant time right now on learning the programs, and improving my chances. Talking to a math guy here actually devising our own statistical program.

 

I did the same thing with poker back in the day. Just put in more hours reading, studying every chance I got where I best the game on a significant clip for several years of full time devotion.

 

Sharp guys like Arp and Dubey might not have the time to devote 5 hours a day, but they have a big edge over a significant number of people just based on sheer willingness to study and understand concepts rather than clicking buttons.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

You guys are missing a huge point. Significant percentage of DFS players just don't care about sharks, edges, stats. They do it for enjoyment and a chance to turn a measly $20 into $2million.

 

 

This is where the disagreement may be. There are lots of DFS fish out there for sure. But each DFS shark can enter at least 500 times. You need a LOT of fish to counter even a few dozen pros who can legally enter 500+ times (and we all know from poker that any pro worth his salt will have some friends and family accounts available).

 

You are correct though. Casinos are still in business because people play blackjack and caribbean and whatever, for years, and in those cases there is no doubt the odds are against them. There'll always be fish in the sea.

Link to post
Share on other sites

if it Is true that 90% of all prizes are won by pros, then that does not bode well for the future of DFS.

 

I agree. This is specific to big football tournaments, but its basically what this article says, I think (though I can't see it at work):

 

http://www.bloomberg...antasy-football

 

People buy lottery tickets all the time. This is the same for the fish only they get to root for their balls.

 

I would guess the majority of players are oblivious to the existence of DFS pros and the tools they use.

 

Not sure if they're oblivious, or just think that those entries are a small portion of the overall pool (maybe), don't care what a fancy computer with 100 factors thinks (meh) or just figures it is only $10/week, so why not take a chance for a million in a way that is more fun and has better odds than the lottery (which it doesn't, probably, but this is a good reason!). I mean, seems like every person in this thread (other than me and Biatch) are aware of the pros, and yet has decided to at least consider playing. Like serge says, even being explicitly aware the odds are against you doesn't discourage a good portion of people from playing.

Link to post
Share on other sites

This is where the disagreement may be. There are lots of DFS fish out there for sure. But each DFS shark can enter at least 500 times. You need a LOT of fish to counter even a few dozen pros who can legally enter 500+ times (and we all know from poker that any pro worth his salt will have some friends and family accounts available).

 

You are correct though. Casinos are still in business because people play blackjack and caribbean and whatever, for years, and in those cases there is no doubt the odds are against them. There'll always be fish in the sea.

 

I think thats something the sites can curtail, I think some of the smaller sites may not even have that option....If they are losing market share due to fish not playing against 500 entries from one person, then you get rid of it.

 

Its similar to HUDs in poker..All the top pros use HUDS to get stats and tendencies..There is a thought that online poker is very tough to beat unless you are using a HUD

 

Now that I cant play on Pokerstars I have been playing on Bovada Poker. They run a very interesting software where you are anonymous. You dont know who you are playing against , other than its player 7...Which makes it a lot similar to live poker, where the only info you have is the info you have as you build a story on the guy while he is at your table.

 

I think HUDs should be banned from poker..WSOP who runs a legal site in Nevada, doesnt allow HUDs..

Link to post
Share on other sites

I think thats something the sites can curtail, I think some of the smaller sites may not even have that option....If they are losing market share due to fish not playing against 500 entries from one person, then you get rid of it.

 

Its similar to HUDs in poker..All the top pros use HUDS to get stats and tendencies..There is a thought that online poker is very tough to beat unless you are using a HUD

 

Now that I cant play on Pokerstars I have been playing on Bovada Poker. They run a very interesting software where you are anonymous. You dont know who you are playing against , other than its player 7...Which makes it a lot similar to live poker, where the only info you have is the info you have as you build a story on the guy while he is at your table.

 

I think HUDs should be banned from poker..WSOP who runs a legal site in Nevada, doesnt allow HUDs..

 

That's an interesting idea. If I was very confident in the quality of the software (which I would never be, especially for a new entity and all the crap we saw with online poker where people had cheats and backdoors for YEARS), and the site did a good job of severely limiting multiple entries (whether it be cracking down on people multi-accounting or just how many entries any person is allowed), then I could see how the sites could have a lot of success. Then again, without million-dollar guarantees fueled by pros jamming thousands of entries, the sites might not be able to afford their 8 (9?) figure advertising budgets that has everyone talking about them and new fish signing up every Sunday...

Link to post
Share on other sites

This whole topic is so interesting, I'm really loving hearing your guys opinions on it, especially because of all the parallels to online poker.

 

I feel the same way, this is really teaching me a lot, and I have soo many questions that Im not even bringing up, feel like Ive already asked a ton. lol

Link to post
Share on other sites

You guys are missing a huge point. Significant percentage of DFS players just don't care about sharks, edges, stats. They do it for enjoyment and a chance to turn a measly $20 into $2million.

 

There are 100s of casino games that have been out for decades and there is significant data of house edge and casino hold. People still flock to these games.

 

Some table games games like Caribbean stud and variants have edge of numbers like 30 percent. People love the games and the action.

 

Saying that DFS is a solved by few( my research showed there are less than 500 true sharks) will do nothing to the masses.

 

Having said that I'm pouring significant time right now on learning the programs, and improving my chances. Talking to a math guy here actually devising our own statistical program.

 

I did the same thing with poker back in the day. Just put in more hours reading, studying every chance I got where I best the game on a significant clip for several years of full time devotion.

 

You are making me question my initial thoughts, I will grant you that.

 

I think my ego about my fantasy sports acumen is just not allowing me to throw money away at a sports game I feel like is rigged. Maybe if I put in the time like you are, it might change.

 

 

I really wish hockey was just goals and assists. I dont give a **** about spreadsheets/whatever, Ill put my money up if those are the only stats.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Little bit of research will tell us that Hisashi Iwakuma is pitching today with Brian ONora as the home plate Ump...Onora is ranked high as an ump for a pitcher.

 

Also the Twins batters are rated a bit high today as the wind in Target Field in Minnesota is blowing Right to Left currently at 14 mph..Detroit has leftie Daniel Norris on the mound, it bodes well for righties.

 

There is a plethora of these info out there, that you can use to build your lineups and have and edge over the average button pusher.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Is O'Nora gettin' any at home or is he having to rub one out on his own because if that's the case then his arm might be a little tired. Then again, maybe he doesn't use his pitching arm.

 

So many factors...

Link to post
Share on other sites

Serge why dont you post your daily plays before the games start, so we can follow along?

 

I m still very new to this and have a long way to go..Just found a website with all that info and trying to put it together myself..I know when my picks fall flat tonight you guys will all laugh..But what the hell, I will post my starting lineup.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Serge's MLB Fantasy Lineup..I have entered several big low limit tourneys as well as 10 heads up $1 matches.

 

P David Price $12500 vs Atlanta

P Danny Salazar $9500 vs KC

C Jarrod Saltamacchia $2400 vs Arizona

1B Joe Mauer $3600 vs San Diego

2B Brian Dozier $4300 vs Detroit

3B Miguel Sano $4700 vs Detroit

SS Daniel Castro $2000 vs Toronto

OF Eduardo Escobar $3300 vs Detroit

OF Aaron Hicks $3700 vs Detroit

OF David Peralta $3300 vs San Diego

Link to post
Share on other sites

This lineup is more of a big field tourney lineup...Hoping for a big Minnesota output vs Norris..Also lot of cheap value plays to be able to fit in Price and Salazar who I believe to have very good matchups tonight.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

Announcements


×
×
  • Create New...