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Strange Hand - Live Full Ring $1/$2


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There are 5 or 6 flushes that we beat.
I think the issue here is what I like to call "but I HAS" syndrome. In this case it's BUT I HASSES A FRUSH HOW ARE IT POSSIBLY TO BE NO GOOD?And three other players who have all made moves that indicate incredible strength.If you had the naked Ad here it'd be a snapcall.If you had top or mid set, it'd be a snapcall.But with this low flush we actually need to find a fold.It sounds completely retarded when you look at immediate showdown value of hands (absolute hand strength), but the reality is, that in a scenario like this the relative hand strength is much much more important.The fact that our hand can, and likely (probably greater than 50% of the time), have ZERO (repeat ZERO) equity in this spot completely and utterly destroys any value our hand has.
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Yeah, how shallow we are is the 1 reason I might call here, but meh with that action it's just so rare that we are going to have the best hand and more than likely we're drawing dead.

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I think the issue here is what I like to call "but I HAS" syndrome. In this case it's BUT I HASSES A FRUSH HOW ARE IT POSSIBLY TO BE NO GOOD?And three other players who have all made moves that indicate incredible strength.If you had the naked Ad here it'd be a snapcall.If you had top or mid set, it'd be a snapcall.But with this low flush we actually need to find a fold.It sounds completely retarded when you look at immediate showdown value of hands (absolute hand strength), but the reality is, that in a scenario like this the relative hand strength is much much more important.The fact that our hand can, and likely (probably greater than 50% of the time), have ZERO (repeat ZERO) equity in this spot completely and utterly destroys any value our hand has.
If one of the villains is an old man, this is a snap fold. They play suited aces yo
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I think the issue here is what I like to call "but I HAS" syndrome. In this case it's BUT I HASSES A FRUSH HOW ARE IT POSSIBLY TO BE NO GOOD?And three other players who have all made moves that indicate incredible strength.If you had the naked Ad here it'd be a snapcall.If you had top or mid set, it'd be a snapcall.But with this low flush we actually need to find a fold.It sounds completely retarded when you look at immediate showdown value of hands (absolute hand strength), but the reality is, that in a scenario like this the relative hand strength is much much more important.The fact that our hand can, and likely (probably greater than 50% of the time), have ZERO (repeat ZERO) equity in this spot completely and utterly destroys any value our hand has.
I think the issue here is you think "3 people alls inzz they must has the nuttttzzzz everytimezzzz. No channzzze they has Ad Q, Kd Q, Q 7, Q 2, 22, 77, QQ, Ad 2, Ad 3, Ad4, Ad 5, Ad 6, Ad 7, Ad 8, Ad 9, Ad 10, 34dd, 45dd, 56 dd, 69dd,etc"
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I think the issue here is you think "3 people alls inzz they must all suz0rzzzzzzzzzzz. No chance they haz a better flush. They all obv have 2 pair/sets/lower flush/AdX...."
See what you sound like?
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I think the issue here is you think "3 people alls inzz they must has the nuttttzzzz everytimezzzz. No channzzze they has Ad Q, Kd Q, Q 7, Q 2, 22, 77, QQ, Ad 2, Ad 3, Ad4, Ad 5, Ad 6, Ad 7, Ad 8, Ad 9, Ad 10, 34dd, 45dd, 56 dd, 69dd,etc"
Not at all, I probably play one of the widest ranges here and definitely never discredit lulz from people's range. It's just that, when show action that indicates LOL strength, in some spots that obv can 100% never be bluffs, we need to have our equity live at least 50% of the time to be profiting here. It's actually the 3rd player count that kills this threshold. Against 2 players this is a semi-sigh call, and one it's an obvious snapI understand that flush over flushes are rare... but for a second disreguard our hand and the board. Say we hold XX and flop is XXX and we see this action, now, we are certainly going to need a strong draw/near nut hand here, are we not?
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Not at all, I probably play one of the widest ranges here and definitely never discredit lulz from people's range. It's just that, when show action that indicates LOL strength, in some spots that obv can 100% never be bluffs, we need to have our equity live at least 50% of the time to be profiting here. It's actually the 3rd player count that kills this threshold. Against 2 players this is a semi-sigh call, and one it's an obvious snapI understand that flush over flushes are rare... but for a second disreguard our hand and the board. Say we hold XX and flop is XXX and we see this action, now, we are certainly going to need a strong draw/near nut hand here, are we not?
With only 3 hands beating us, putting in 25% of our stack, I still think it's a call here. I understand everyone's points, but op's situation is the reason I'm not changing my mind.
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putting in 25% of our stack
This made me doubletake. 25% would be so super committed it'd be an easy call for a blind manIt's 75% of our stack thoughPot odds we are getting are roughly 4:1
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We've put in $42, we have $118 left. so 160x3=480+42=522. 522:118 is 4.4:1If we are drawing dead 3/4 the time and flipping 1/4 the time, 3/4 the time we lose $118, 1/4 the time we win $320 (640x.5) which is a SLIGHT underdog, but I HIGHLY doubt we are drawing dead THAT often...so I am probably calling.

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This hand is a perfect example of how important reads are (and in this scenario, I mean opponent modeling).OP, I can give you the right answer as to whether or not your call is right for you based on your answers to a few questions.Do you think UTG idiot is acting how he did with any AA (including those with no diamond)?Do you think UTG idiot is acting how he did with KdQx?Do you think UTG idiot is acting how he did with a flush that beats yours? if so, which flushes?Do you think UTG idiot is acting how he did with just an Ad? If so, is he liable to limp with any AdXx?Which flushes that you beat do you think UTG idiot limped with?Do you think UTG+1 is acting how he did with a flush that you beat? If so, which flushes?Do you think UTG+1 is acting how he did with just an Ad? If so, which AdXx do you think he's limping with?Do you think LP is acting how she did with just an Ad? If so, which AdXx do you think she's limping with?These are all quite important questions that have to be asked if you want to know the right answer. These questions determine the hand combinations you're up against, and the subsequent (and in this scenario, complex) equity calculations that must be gone through.You can argue with my logic on this, but here are some thoughts from my live experience.Idiot is easily shoving with as little as a naked AA or KdQx.Old man might actually tank call with a flush that beats yours, but almost never call with a flush you beat. (Edit: omitted a key word in my first post)Old man will marry something like AdQx, KdKx, AdAx for some reason, but be more prone to lay down AdXx depending on the type of nit you're dealing with.LP will tank call with just the Ad. Either way, the odds I came up with of you winning this hand based on what you're up against (according to my evaluation of their ranges) comes to a grand total of 37.8%. Basically, you gladly make the call.

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This made me doubletake. 25% would be so super committed it'd be an easy call for a blind manIt's 75% of our stack thoughPot odds we are getting are roughly 4:1
Right, and we have the opportunity to go from ~160 to ~640. I believe we are dead here MAYBE 50% of the time, meaning we are ahead 50%. Of that 50%, we will win maybe 2/3 of the time when we are ahead. Which is why I call here. Again, if we are 300bbs deep, its totally different.
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Right, and we have the opportunity to go from ~160 to ~640. I believe we are dead here MAYBE 50% of the time, meaning we are ahead 50%. Of that 50%, we will win maybe 2/3 of the time when we are ahead. Which is why I call here. Again, if we are 300bbs deep, its totally different.
No and no.We are dead here way more than 50% of the time and if we are ahead we are only winning about 50% of the time. I'm not trying to say we are always dead (worst case scenario, obv) but all I see from your posts is how this is so easily the best case scenario (lower flush/set/2 pair).
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Either way, the odds I came up with of you winning this hand based on what you're up against (according to my evaluation of their ranges) comes to a grand total of 37.8%. Basically, you gladly make the call.
Seriously? What ranges are you putting on villains. That is so unrealistically high.. You're saying we are ahead around 75-80% of the time. I just don't buy it.
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If we are ahead, we are going to win more than 50 pct of the time
That's a big if. And no we aren't. From the hands that showed up in OPs case we are only 46% to win. That's not more than 50, and it's nowhere close to 2/3 of the time like you said earlier.
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Can u show me 46 pct?
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 7,380 games 0.005 secs 1,476,000 games/secBoard: Qd 7d 2dDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 46.341% 46.34% 00.00% 3420 0.00 { Td8d }Hand 1: 04.756% 04.76% 00.00% 351 0.00 { 22 }Hand 2: 24.634% 24.63% 00.00% 1818 0.00 { Ad6h }Hand 3: 24.268% 24.27% 00.00% 1791 0.00 { QQ
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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 7,380 games 0.005 secs 1,476,000 games/secBoard: Qd 7d 2dDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 46.341% 46.34% 00.00% 3420 0.00 { Td8d }Hand 1: 04.756% 04.76% 00.00% 351 0.00 { 22 }Hand 2: 24.634% 24.63% 00.00% 1818 0.00 { Ad6h }Hand 3: 24.268% 24.27% 00.00% 1791 0.00 { QQ
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How do you think we're dead over 50% of the time here? Have you played live at these limits?UTG idiot is never shoving with the nuts for that much over the $40.UTG+1 tight/passive isn't tank-calling with the nuts. The only flush combination he's holding here is KdJd, and he's probably not tank-calling with that vs. the idiot either. He might show up with Jd9d, but that's a lot more rare for those types.LP isn't tank-calling with the nuts/king high flush either. So that leaves the only combo as Jd9d.So basically the UTG guy only has 3 hands that beat us, UTG+1 is holding 1 (maybe 2), LP is holding 1.Now when you consider the massive amount of flush draw combinations, sets, AA/KK for the idiot, AdAx/AdQx, lower flushes, and how often we're a favorite over all 3 hands, it's easy to call.Not to mention, if we're facing multiple sets, that only improves the odds of our hand holding up. Or facing a draw and a lower flush. Having the UTG idiot in the hand is EXACTLY what makes this hand profitable. His wide range is what presents more scenarios in which we're ahead. Not to mention the extra $160 he adds to the pot to give us better odds.But if you disagree, how about you give me your approximation of the ranges. Or are you just going by feel?

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