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God damn it. I wrote like my longest post in my FCP career and it got buried in comma-less, blocky, ranting, pseudo-English. I am so tilted.Look Ltrain- with every single one of your picks you are betting against the books. You are betting with the public opinion. If that public side wins, the books lose. Like I asked before- Do you really think that whatever analysis and research you are doing is giving you some information that the bookmakers did not have?
Yes, excellent prior post.
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You're preaching to the choir. Your analysis was perfectly rational. GrandfatherContrarian gives you his blessings.
Yes, excellent prior post.
Ok now how are people not understanding this then? Hubris? Arrogance? Ignorance? I simply cannot understand it.
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Ok now how are people not understanding this then? Hubris? Arrogance? Ignorance? I simply cannot understand it.
When did you come to the realization that contrarianism -- or whatever you want to call it -- was probably the most reasonable approach to sports betting?
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When did you come to the realization that contrarianism -- or whatever you want to call it -- was probably the most reasonable approach to sports betting?
Pretty much the first time you introduced this idea to the forum. I've never placed a single sports bet before, but I understand the moving of the line and balancing action and how the bookmakers expect to profit, so when you introduced the idea of betting against the public it seemed like not only the best way to profit, but pretty much the only way to profit. I know that a ton of guys think that they can out handicap bookmakers, but honestly how many can there be? And if they can, why not just become bookmakers themselves? BTW- I will probably do some research and eventually start placing bets using a contrarian system.
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Pretty much the first time you introduced this idea to the forum. I've never placed a single sports bet before, but I understand the moving of the line and balancing action and how the bookmakers expect to profit, so when you introduced the idea of betting against the public it seemed like not only the best way to profit, but pretty much the only way to profit. I know that a ton of guys think that they can out handicap bookmakers, but honestly how many can there be? And if they can, why not just become bookmakers themselves? BTW- I will probably do some research and eventually start placing bets using a contrarian system.
I'll have a response to this when I get back from my date. It will go terribly, because I am getting killed on the bases today. Fucking Braves/Marlins series gave me angina.
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Okay-- I am going to a wedding (San Fran) on Thursday so I have to make bets on Wednesday. I do not like this but no other options. I am passsing on NCAA this week since I will not be able to watch the games. Here are the games I like --- feedback is welcomed big time--- as I have to bet tommorrow---UGH! Cincinnati Bengals -1½ -- Rookie Flacco making first start-- Johnson has a lot to prove ---4 units New York Jets -3 (-115) -- Favre debut and the Jets know Pennington's tendencies --- 4 units Pittsburgh Steelers -6½ -- the texans oline can not pass block against the steelers d --- 2 units Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-105) -- I do not believe Young can handle their defense --- 2 units Arizona Cardinals -2½ -- I like Warner starting and expect Boldin and Fitz to put up a lot of points --- 2 units Denver Broncos -3 -- Oak has spent millions on Walker and safety Wilson??? Cutler will break out this year! - 4 unitslet me know what you think---
Cincy/Bal- Ill prob be on the other side but ill most likely pass the game.Jets/Miami- I like miami taking the pts at home.Hou/Pit - i dont like either side...i will most likely be on the overJack/Tenn- I like neither team, neither showed me anything in the preseason to take either side. PassCards/49ers- Again i like the other sideDenver/Oak - If i do get involved i do like Den.I will give my analysis of each game, when i have time, which will probably tomorrow or friday. Good luck
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Cincy/Bal- Ill prob be on the other side but ill most likely pass the game.Jets/Miami- I like miami taking the pts at home.Hou/Pit - i dont like either side...i will most likely be on the overJack/Tenn- I like neither team, neither showed me anything in the preseason to take either side. PassCards/49ers- Again i like the other sideDenver/Oak - If i do get involved i do like Den.I will give my analysis of each game, when i have time, which will probably tomorrow or friday. Good luck
cool good stuff--- I will be able to look at the board tommorrow but since i will be sharing a computer will not want to use any passwords. Looks like I took the wrong side in most games.. No worries--- There is always next week! good luck to everyone saturday and sunday---
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Man this stuff is my new fav stuf to read on FCP. Anyone wanna swap? I ship $200 on AP (or Tilt, possibly Stars) for $200 on sports betting site of your choice.
it has gotten pretty funny hasn't it! if I ever win I might help you out! Hey Tactical bear I seriously would like some advice on how you chose games? Is it as simple as if you agree with the public then stay away? Or do you just look for sides you like that the public doesn't? Thanks PS-- i tried to figure this out but i have the education of a third grader!!!! ( this is a joke!)
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it has gotten pretty funny hasn't it! if I ever win I might help you out! Hey Tactical bear I seriously would like some advice on how you chose games? Is it as simple as if you agree with the public then stay away? Or do you just look for sides you like that the public doesn't? Thanks PS-- i tried to figure this out but i have the education of a third grader!!!! ( this is a joke!)
The contrarian philosophy that Wang/Tactical Bear employs is thoroughly outlined in a number of places, but if I were you, I'd start by reading the Sports Gambling 201 thread. (It's really excellent stuff.)
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Pretty much the first time you introduced this idea to the forum. I've never placed a single sports bet before, but I understand the moving of the line and balancing action and how the bookmakers expect to profit, so when you introduced the idea of betting against the public it seemed like not only the best way to profit, but pretty much the only way to profit. I know that a ton of guys think that they can out handicap bookmakers, but honestly how many can there be? And if they can, why not just become bookmakers themselves? BTW- I will probably do some research and eventually start placing bets using a contrarian system.
I'm somewhat in the same place you are. I haven't bet sports in a long time, mainly because I realized everything Wang's been saying about out-handicapping the books. Then I remember noticing every time I thought I had a "lock" because the line seemed wrong, I would lose. Then I remembered hearing a quote by Einstein or somebody like that saying, "if you give a man 2 choices, one right and one wrong, more often than not he'll pick the wrong one." Then I read Sports Gambling 201 and it all came together. I'll be betting pretty high selectively rather than spreading money out over several games. I need either an all or nothing result to be satisfied either way. I'm not expecting to make money this NFL season, but at least there's a method behind it now.Wang, what do you make of the Dallas/Cleveland game starting at 3.5, Dallas getting all the action, then the line going to 5.5? Stay away? Also, the Indy/Chicago game started at 10, 70% of action came in on Indy and it moved down to 9.5; that about fits the requirement doesn't it?
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Ok now how are people not understanding this then? Hubris? Arrogance? Ignorance? I simply cannot understand it.
It is very hard for people who think they know a lot about sports to fully understand that their sports "knowledge" doesn't have a place in the world of sports handicapping. They'll see a number that makes no sense, and pounce, because they KNOW UNC is the best team in the country, or they KNOW the Patriots are, literally, unbeatable. Besdies, who wants to bet on the bad teams? Who likes playing the Mariners every day for a month? Who likes taking UL-Monroe two weeks in a row because "they looked good in a shutout loss to Auburn" last week? People would rather make an ocassional correct decision based on their handicapping skills than consistently beat the books by aligning themselves with them. The books are smart. They know nobody wants to get their money in consistently on the Pirates and the Mariners of the world, so that's where they hide it.It's also, to be honest, quite a tough idea to simply stumble upon. It requires a basic knowlege of economics and the psychology of the Sports Book. It's humbling to be the only guy in the bar rooting for the KC Royals, night after night, and it's lonely, too. If I'd simply come in here and posted plays instead of outlining my thought process, would ANYONE have thought Miami +1 or ATL +3 or Toronto -105 with David Purcey on the mound against the Twins yesterday were good picks? I doubt it. Everyone would have gone all HollyWood AFD on me. (shrug)So, in the way of an answer, it's a combination of ignorance and pride
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So, in the way of an answer, it's a combination of ignorance and pride
Yeah I understand this in the beginning, but how many times have you explained your approach now? A number of us have even tried to dumb it down for the guys like Hollywood and Ltrain and yet they still refuse to even consider the possibility that a non-favorite can be a good bet. When you posted your leans in the NCAA week 2 thread, Hollywood thought you were joking. How the **** does that even make sense? Does he assume that the bookmakers never watch a single game of football and just blindly throw shit up on the board? Does he think they're just snickering to themselves about how some stupid assholes are going to bet on Cincinatti because nobody has ever heard of how good Oklahoma is? And anyway how can any pick really be that big of a ****ing joke? The lines are close enough that you could pick at absolute random and not do any worse than paying the juice over time. In fact, I would wager that over a significant sample size, Hollywood would do much better by picking at random than with his current system of snapping up every single super public "lock," by the same philosophy that you will be able to beat sports betting long term by fading that same public side.I guess this is all unnecessary rambling because Hollywood personifies something I hate about most people. He can take valuable knowledge, stare it right in the ****ing face and never let a single sentence absorb into his brain.
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Yeah I understand this in the beginning, but how many times have you explained your approach now? A number of us have even tried to dumb it down for the guys like Hollywood and Ltrain and yet they still refuse to even consider the possibility that a non-favorite can be a good bet. When you posted your leans in the NCAA week 2 thread, Hollywood thought you were joking. How the **** does that even make sense? Does he assume that the bookmakers never watch a single game of football and just blindly throw shit up on the board? Does he think they're just snickering to themselves about how some stupid assholes are going to bet on Cincinatti because nobody has ever heard of how good Oklahoma is? And anyway how can any pick really be that big of a ****ing joke? The lines are close enough that you could pick at absolute random and not do any worse than paying the juice over time. In fact, I would wager that over a significant sample size, Hollywood would do much better by picking at random than with his current system of snapping up every single super public "lock," by the same philosophy that you will be able to beat sports betting long term by fading that same public side.I guess this is all unnecessary rambling because Hollywood personifies something I hate about most people. He can take valuable knowledge, stare it right in the ****ing face and never let a single sentence absorb into his brain.
I cleaned it up a bit, but you just gave me a new signature. Thanks
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I cleaned it up a bit, but you just gave me a new signature. Thanks
Hah. I'm pretty sure this is my first time being featured in a sig. You have inspired me to spew more hate so as to gain recognition.
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Hah. I'm pretty sure this is my first time being featured in a sig. You have inspired me to spew more hate so as to gain recognition.
Yea I dont know you, but anyone who blasts that guy like you did deserves a signature
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Havent made any plays yet but leans are toward:KC/NE under 44, gotta keep track of the weather situation there, right now looks like it will be windy.Houston/Pitt over 43.5Detroit -3Buff -1Phil -8SF +3Indy -9.5slight lean toward cle depends if the number climbs any higherTenn +3Tenn under 37Will have a write up for each game i play tomorrow night sometime

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As a huge Eagles fan, I don't like the Eagles giving up 8. Their run defense is suspect and SJ is a beast. I hope they cover though!
Im a huge eagles hater...and i dont think its going to be a close game at all. SJ is a beast but you have to take into account he was hurt last year and didnt play much, also didnt play all preseason, and the o-line of the rams is still in shambles. They have 0 speed on the outside in terms of recievers (holt can run routes not fast). The eagles secondary is improved with the addition of asante samuel which should allow more blitzing this year by the them since they can line up 1 on 1 on with the rams recievers. If the eagles score early they turn the rams into a one demionsal team which does not include running with SJ. Just my 2 cents.
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Ravens +1.5Titans +3Dolphins +3Packers -2
I am 99% sure I'll be on at least 3 of those games. I might pass Tennessee. I probably will, actually. But I really like the Ravens, Dolphins, and Packers. After getting drilled by some ridiculous, absurd fucking bullshit in the Nevada/Texas Tech game, I'm probably going to go off for my entire bankroll tomorrow when UTEP and Toledo both fail to cover, netting me a SECOND -20 unit week in a row. I'm up 50x for the year on baseball, and after today that's going to be almost entirely gone because of shitty MAC and WAC schools demolishing BCS schools but still managing not to cover.
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I am 99% sure I'll be on at least 3 of those games. I might pass Tennessee. I probably will, actually. But I really like the Ravens, Dolphins, and Packers. After getting drilled by some ridiculous, absurd fucking bullshit in the Nevada/Texas Tech game, I'm probably going to go off for my entire bankroll tomorrow when UTEP and Toledo both fail to cover, netting me a SECOND -20 unit week in a row. I'm up 50x for the year on baseball, and after today that's going to be almost entirely gone because of shitty MAC and WAC schools demolishing BCS schools but still managing not to cover.
ask me how I feel about the Gators kicking a meaningless field goal with 25 seconds left to cover. If I didnt also bet two units on the under I would be on LFT right now.dolphins are starting to smell like a team people like too much in their opener. scares me.
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ask me how I feel about the Gators kicking a meaningless field goal with 25 seconds left to cover. If I didnt also bet two units on the under I would be on LFT right now.dolphins are starting to smell like a team people like too much in their opener. scares me.
Yeah, that was ridiculous. Meyer had all his starters in and Florida was trying to throw it into the endzone. I feel really terrible for anybody that got that number at anything less than 23.5. Just fucking ridiculous.To add insult to injury, Matchbook just graded my $600 wager on Toledo as a winner, even though they didn't cover. So instead of being stuck 1800 today, I'm actually stuck a little under 3K. $1200 tease.And that's BEFORE UTEP fails to cover, and I lose another 4 units. So far, during the first two weeks of college football, I'm stuck close to 6K. That's 40% of my primary bankroll. I seriously considered shutting down and just taking a long vacation, but I'd rather lose it all than quit.That being said, I will be offering no more analysis here. I'll post whatever plays I get around to posting, and maybe some leans, but anyone who has tailed me for the last 10 days is likely stone broke right now. I don't feel guilty, but I feel like a hypocrite giving my "endorsement" to a particular play when I couldn't pick a pumpkin from the ground right now.
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Yeah, that was ridiculous. Meyer had all his starters in and Florida was trying to throw it into the endzone. I feel really terrible for anybody that got that number at anything less than 23.5. Just fucking ridiculous.To add insult to injury, Matchbook just graded my $600 wager on Toledo as a winner, even though they didn't cover. So instead of being stuck 1800 today, I'm actually stuck a little under 3K. $1200 tease.And that's BEFORE UTEP fails to cover, and I lose another 4 units. So far, during the first two weeks of college football, I'm stuck close to 6K. That's 40% of my primary bankroll. I seriously considered shutting down and just taking a long vacation, but I'd rather lose it all than quit.That being said, I will be offering no more analysis here. I'll post whatever plays I get around to posting, and maybe some leans, but anyone who has tailed me for the last 10 days is likely stone broke right now. I don't feel guilty, but I feel like a hypocrite giving my "endorsement" to a particular play when I couldn't pick a pumpkin from the ground right now.
Tough day man, at least they give you a winner on toledo for some reason, so i guess thats a bright spot. Quick question though, and i dont know if you addressed this in a thread earlier but is there a reason you mix up your unit play and not just flat bet each game in case you have a bad run like your on now.
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