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Can I Fold Kk Here?


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I said earlier it looks like you're beat, either with a set of 3s or the goofy straight. I think one of the reasons for this would be that top pair in this situation would lead out on either the turn or the flop. There's no way on a board like that you'd risk someone checking behind you and hitting their draw.

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I agree that it is vague and often misapplied, but it is a very important and underrated concept.Pot control is not just about keeping pots smaller, it is about keeping the pot at the size you want it, looking at the potential pot on future streets and the stack sizes.
Yes, where most people apply it it's almost exactly THIS situation and the phrase 'Oh ya check the turn...pot control...ya know?' The phrase 'I'm gonna play pot control' annoys me.
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i still think this is a very bad spot for pot control. this is not one of these spots where you gain a very small +EV edge by betting... it's not a longshot. the EV advantage is huge, and hero has villains range CRUSHED. giving villain a free shot at at least a few outs is just horrible here, since we probably pay off any river other than a river that pairs the board (except of a 3).when villain just calls that flop (he's a passive player), he will pay our bets off with holdings as bad as A3 for bottom pair (read the notes that hero has given us!).

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i still think this is a very bad spot for pot control. this is not one of these spots where you gain a very small +EV edge by betting... it's not a longshot. the EV advantage is huge, and hero has villains range CRUSHED. giving villain a free shot at at least a few outs is just horrible here, since we probably pay off any river other than a river that pairs the board (except of a 3).when villain just calls that flop (he's a passive player), he will pay our bets off with holdings as bad as A3 for bottom pair (read the notes that hero has given us!).
No, hero doesnt have villains range crushed with these stacks and the betting line he took. At best he's got 24 AT, JJ,QQ vs 18 AA or sets, and AT OOP is questionable unless hero has been stealing frequently.Re pot control, outside of shortstack play, its only the most important aspect of tournament poker.
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No, hero doesnt have villains range crushed with these stacks and the betting line he took. At best he's got 24 AT, JJ,QQ vs 18 AA or sets, and AT OOP is questionable unless hero has been stealing frequently.Re pot control, outside of shortstack play, its only the most important aspect of tournament poker.
i think you're still missing the fact that this is a DONKEY. saying AT is questionable OOP is just wrong. i think hands like K8s are questionable but still likely. JT QT KT 9T are definately in his range. he never has AA KK QQ or JJ here i think. and i think you're talking a little bit results orientated, since he raises the turn after hero bets. of course as the betting came down it looks like hero is beaten for sure but hero doesn't know that until he actually bets the turn. against a passive player like this you gain huge value by valuebetting your hand.
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No, hero doesnt have villains range crushed with these stacks and the betting line he took. At best he's got 24 AT, JJ,QQ vs 18 AA or sets, and AT OOP is questionable unless hero has been stealing frequently.Re pot control, outside of shortstack play, its only the most important aspect of tournament poker.
With AA and TT reraising preflop you can discount those heavily. With sets being more likely to raise the flop than a naked ten you can discount those further.His most likely hands are ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s. Add some offsuit tens too.Think about it like this:If we bet the turn and we are betting against his entire range. He is never folding a ten.We check the turn and call the river and we are getting that same money in against a far stronger subset of his hands.What am I missing?
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guess not!Seriously, I think if 4.40 players want to be able to move up successfully then developing skills like pot control and rational hand reading are essential. Yes, you may give up some EV folding hands like this at the 4.40 level, but it'll save your a$$ at $30+ buyins. If youre content at the 4.40 level and crushing them by adapting to the bad play, have fun.
A little off topic but this post got me thinking. I pretty much play only 440's and micro mtt's and I have been rather successful as of late. I definitely want to move up to higer buyins when my ability/bankroll allows for it. What this post makes me worry is, am I developing bad habits that allow me to win at the micro stakes but will cost me when I move up. Is that something that everyone deals with when moving up, getting rid of the bad habits that were profitable at the lower levels but -ev at the higher levels. Am I just rambling or does anyone understand what I'm saying lol.
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cop, i'm sorry but all your posts in this thread are hilariously terribad results-oriented nonsense. your line of pot control would maybe MAYBE be ok in like a live $1k+ nitfest against a player who is 50 years old+ or something, but this is a gd online $4 tourney where people stack off with queen-high, gutshots, etc, and i'm not exaggerating at all.

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tough to have been results oriented when Ive consistently said the same thing since before results were posted. If youve read my posts for the last 2 months pot control has become the primary focus of my play, it is so crticial. I dont care if its a 4.40 or a $1500, as Edog says, overplaying big pockets is the most common mistake amateurs make. Even Gus Hansen discusses it several times in Every Hand Revealed. I admit I cant "mentally step down to 4.40" level, and if I had to in order think through a thread, I wouldnt. If the play is as bad as you say they are unbeatable anyway. You can beat one or two donkeys but you cant beat 150 of them.(Oh, and be very careful stereotyping play by age, lol.)

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A little off topic but this post got me thinking. I pretty much play only 440's and micro mtt's and I have been rather successful as of late. I definitely want to move up to higer buyins when my ability/bankroll allows for it. What this post makes me worry is, am I developing bad habits that allow me to win at the micro stakes but will cost me when I move up. Is that something that everyone deals with when moving up, getting rid of the bad habits that were profitable at the lower levels but -ev at the higher levels. Am I just rambling or does anyone understand what I'm saying lol.
If you think about what you are doing and how your play might differ at higher stakes then the adjustment shouldnt be too horrible. If you robotically make reads that are natural for the stakes level then yes, you are developing bad habits. This thread is a good example. Villain has been stereotyped as a "4.40 donkey" (even the OP describes a play before this hand critically, when, at least on the details presented it may not have been that bad). That stereotyping is causing what to me was a fairly obvious read to be ignored, and it only takes one mistake like this a tournament to be crippled.
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tough to have been results oriented when Ive consistently said the same thing since before results were posted.
You're missing the point. We know that he is checkraising the turn. That's the 'result' mk is talking about. If we knew he was going to checkraise we would obviously check behind, and I too think you are being biased by this.If you think Edog or Gus Hansen would check behind here you are sorely mistaken. Give me 10 mins and I'll post this in HSMTT. I don't think there will be a single person advocating either pot control or betting small here.
If the play is as bad as you say they are unbeatable anyway. You can beat one or two donkeys but you cant beat 150 of them.
I despise this train of thought, even if it is a joke.
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it only takes one mistake like this a tournament to be crippled.
There we have the number one phrase in the weak tight playbook. Sorry, but it's true. It seems like your mindset and advice is always about avoiding going broke instead of maximising value. Here we can win his whole stack if we bet correctly. Instead you're looking to win a small pot, and I really have no idea why.If you change it so there was a flush draw on the flop and it completed on the turn then yeah, fine, check back. When the flop is that dry and his range is generally polarised to sets or a pair of tens, checking makes no sense.
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There we have the number one phrase in the weak tight playbook. Sorry, but it's true. It seems like your mindset and advice is always about avoiding going broke instead of maximising value. Here we can win his whole stack if we bet correctly. Instead you're looking to win a small pot, and I really have no idea why.If you change it so there was a flush draw on the flop and it completed on the turn then yeah, fine, check back. When the flop is that dry and his range is generally polarised to sets or a pair of tens, checking makes no sense.
Read some cash books and watch some cardrunners videos, Bond18 talks about pot control quite a bit if I remember correctly. I totally disagree that maximizing thin value is profitable in tournaments when doing so can cripple you. Yes, you can win his whole stack, you can also lose nearly your whole stack, and the read is not that obscure. Small pots for small hands, and by the turn a single big pair is a small hand.
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I despise this train of thought, even if it is a joke.
Why would you hate this train of thought? You of all people should understand the math...if the competition is undreadable and youre guessing whenever you play for stacks, you cant beat the rake consistently.
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yeah maximizing thin value in a tournament is sometimes wrong, because maximizing thin chip-EV value is sometimes -EV, thats because an event in a tournament is not totally indepented from previous events, like in cash games, for example.but this is not thin value. i can't emphasize that enough. that is a typical passive 4.40 donkey. you would laugh if you could see with which kind of hands they pay your bets off.

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http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?p=4270755Cop, it seems clear that you aren't willing to listen to those posting here. Please try posting your thoughts in that thread. See what the reaction is from the HSMTTers. I posted that thread as a $100 MTT against a good TAG opponent, and it is still a clear bet on the turn. Thus far everyone in all three threads have said that checking the turn is a horrible mistake, and you are the sole supporter of it.
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1) Read some cash books and 2) watch some cardrunners videos, 3) Bond18 talks about pot control quite a bit if I remember correctly. 4) I totally disagree that maximizing thin value is profitable in tournaments when doing so can cripple you. 5) Small pots for small hands, and by the turn a single big pair is a small hand.
1) Done. A cash book would tell you to bet the turn here.2) Done. Cardrunners videos would tell you to bet the turn here.3) Bond18 would bet the turn here every single time. He would bet 2/3 to 3/4 pot, and he would call a shove.4) I never mentioned thin value. This isn't a thin value bet. Betting QT here would be getting closer to a thin value bet, but I'd still bet it anyway.5) Don't get caught up on that cute "small hand small pot" phrase. I think it's leading you astray. If you have a small hand and the pot is already big, that phrase no longer applies. Here the pot is getting to be a large size, and if you are only looking to get one more bet in, it is by FAR better to bet the turn and check the river than to check the turn and bet or call the river.6) 5 is a moot point because an overpair here is a big hand. And we want a big pot. We want his stack.
Why would you hate this train of thought? You of all people should understand the math...if the competition is undreadable and youre guessing whenever you play for stacks, you cant beat the rake consistently.
I hope this a just a huge level. I hope, beyond all hope, that you aren't being serious here. I really don't know what to say. I'm just completely lost for words.
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I read the replies.Initially, I think that the hand is played very standard. There are a large number of hands that will continue on the turn like a pair and a flush draw or pair and a straight draw. We can definitely get one and sometimes two more streets of value from these hands depending on how the board cards fall.Whoever said this is a check back because it's a WA/WB situation is very very far off imo. If the flop is Q72r, then yes. The fact that his range can consist of hands where he's got 2 outs (like KTo) to hands where he's got 15 outs (OESD with FD) in addition to hands that are beating us means that this is the polar opposite of WA/WB.By betting the turn (I think bet sizes here are excellent given stack sizes) we charge the weaker hands to draw and we have what is a fairly easy fold if we do get raised since it's a pretty dirty board for him to try and run a bluff on.I don't necessarily think we bet the turn with the intention of fistpumpinstacalling a shove or looking to get it in, but there are just too many worse hands that he has that will pay a turn bet here for us to be checking back.

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Can i fold here, or just shove the rest?
Given the read on the villain I think you pretty much have to fold because he's not raising anything that doesn't crush you to death... though... lol I has Kings I'm getting it in bc I lack self control.This whole line is fine... including the turn bet since you know a majority of his range he'll call down with. Only hands I'm scared of are TT, 88, T8 and 9-7... I think this is 9-7 more often than any other hand.
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1) Done. A cash book would tell you to bet the turn here.2) Done. Cardrunners videos would tell you to bet the turn here.3) Bond18 would bet the turn here every single time. He would bet 2/3 to 3/4 pot, and he would call a shove.4) I never mentioned thin value. This isn't a thin value bet. Betting QT here would be getting closer to a thin value bet, but I'd still bet it anyway.5) Don't get caught up on that cute "small hand small pot" phrase. I think it's leading you astray. If you have a small hand and the pot is already big, that phrase no longer applies. Here the pot is getting to be a large size, and if you are only looking to get one more bet in, it is by FAR better to bet the turn and check the river than to check the turn and bet or call the river.6) 5 is a moot point because an overpair here is a big hand. And we want a big pot. We want his stack.I hope this a just a huge level. I hope, beyond all hope, that you aren't being serious here. I really don't know what to say. I'm just completely lost for words.
We obv disagree, and I dont have access to 2+2. Its not a level. I stand behind betting smaller and folding to the reraise, as I have from my first post, and before the results showed I was right! Youre the one being stubborn here. Give me a good reason to agree and I will, pleading "consensus" isnt a reason, nor is proclaiming that youre right, especially in the face of the results.
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I love this reply-yea...id pot control by bloating the chit out of it.

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We obv disagree, and I dont have access to 2+2. Its not a level. I stand behind betting smaller and folding to the reraise, as I have from my first post, and before the results showed I was right! Youre the one being stubborn here. Give me a good reason to agree and I will, pleading "consensus" isnt a reason, nor is proclaiming that youre right, especially in the face of the results.
Why do you need to bet smaller anywhere?800 into 1300 on the flop and 1500 into 2900 on the turn seem to be almost ideal bet sizes. We're pretty deep so it takes a big hand or big cajones for him to c/r the turn, so when he c/rs, we fold. I see no reason to ever bet smaller on either of these streets given the board texture. It's not like we're pot committing ourselves in any remote fashion by betting the turn.
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We obv disagree, and I dont have access to 2+2. Its not a level. I stand behind betting smaller and folding to the reraise, as I have from my first post, and before the results showed I was right! Youre the one being stubborn here. Give me a good reason to agree and I will, pleading "consensus" isnt a reason, nor is proclaiming that youre right, especially in the face of the results.
I didn't actually see that the results had been posted. They are irrelevant though. We know that AA and 22 are in his range in some %. If villain had JTo it wouldn't prove I was right. By that rationale, folding KK preflop is correct against a guy shoving ATC if he happened to have AA that one time.And FWIW I implied early on that I would bet and probably fold to a raise on the turn, so we would lose the same amount by betting as by checking (and calling or betting the river). The difference is, if we have the best hand we make significantly more by betting.
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Okay, two responses on the other forum that are thought out and go into a bit of reasoning agree with Cop on this, one does not - so I am thinking. How small do you bet on the flop and still charge enough for any kind of draw? I just don't know if betting less then half the pot achieves it. But I very rarely do that. So what would you bet on the flop?I am also NOT checking behind on the turn, period. So what would you bet into this pot? If he did have a strange straight draw, I do not want to give him a free card. And these are not value bets to me at all, I feel I am protecting my hand.The check raise, I have looked at this hand so many times. And I am trying to figure out what he does this with besides air that we beat. I can't think of anything unless he is a complete moron.So I glanced through the thread, Copernicus, what exactly do you recommend by the smaller bet sizing?(not saying what is right or wrong, but I just want to think about this for a while)The posts from 2+2...******************* POST 1^^ If he calls two bets, he's going to be pretty close to felted. I think the turn decision is close actually, if we bet and a "competent TAG" shoves I think calling is going to be very marginal -- the OESD got there, the board was pretty dry so he could have flatted with a set, there are a lot of hands he could shove for super-thin value or as a semibluff (AT, 99, 77, some combo draw where he picked up diamonds on the turn) but wouldn't necessarily do so. I think it's going to be tough to get 2 more streets of value given stacks and a TAG villain, but by checking behind you'll be able to get 1 more.Edit: And because OP raised OTB, we can rule out QQ/JJ from Villain's range most of the time.*****************POST 2Yesterday this was from a $30 MTT today its a $100 MTT? I havent checked to see if it was a $10 STT the day before!Todd Terry's answer is more complete but similar to mine in yesterday's thread. There is very thin value on either side of this hand over a lot of villains range. The only time there are strong values is when villain has the set and hero is drawing to a 2 outer, and thats not the side we want to be on.Re the PSR of 5, yes it does make you want to lean toward getting it all in, but I dont think its compelling. Hero still has 30 bb, and betting smaller on the flop (in the name of "pot control" or "rationalizing the PSR" or WA/WB) is reasonable with such a dry board.*********************POST 3The problem is that you have an overpair on the flop and your stack only has 5x the current pot (a PSR of about 5). In this situation, you are committed, unless an Ace comes.On the turn, do not give any draws. Bet at least 2500, this disallows giving flush or straight any chance to draw. He will pay you off with much worse hands than yours.Yes, you may be beat by a set or by a made straight. But with only a PSR of 5, you can treat an overpair as the nuts.

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