Quiz Question #23

[Orcasgt22 0]

I make the raise. If he calls, I probably have him beat unless an over card hits the turn. If he reraises me, Insta muck the hand and make a mental note of what happened.Either way, thats a tough situation to be in.

[LooseCannon 0]

You are a slight favorite against your opponent's range of hands. (53% according to pokerstove). In this case, you are probably way ahead or way behind, with position on an aggressor and you're not likely to face future bets if you are way behind.Ideally, you call and it goes check-check on both the turn and river (unless you catch a nine or a runner-runner straight). I don't get why some people are assuming that your opponent will bet again on the turn if he has a hand like a set and never check the turn there.If your opponent will only bet the turn if he has a hand and the category of "a hand" includes picking up a draw and he will bet again if he has KQ and catches a ten on the turn of an open-ended straight draw or if he gets halfway there on his backdoor flush draw. "A hand" could also be anything that beats middle pair.This means that even though you are a slight favorite against his hand range, you're not going to win this hand 53% of the time if you follow the strategy of caling and folding to any further action. And you don't get implied odds for a call from being able to trap him for a second continuation bet on the turn or river.I think that this might make it close enough that the idea of folding despite being a favorite against your opponent's range is a non-ludicrous proposition (although not necessarily the right play), especially when you consider the stack sizes and the blind sizes and consider that this is probably relatively early in a 10K buy-in tournament. This is a spot where you should consider passing up a small edge early on in a tournament. For all you people who wanted to fold AK vs QJ on the first hand of the WSOP, you were in better shape then than here.The more that I think about it, the more that I think you should fold, especially if you are a good player at a weak table.As for holding JT, you're in much better shape and have more outs if you are beat (unless you are against a set) and calling on the flop makes more sense.Of course, this all assumes that your opponent won't fold AA to a raise on the flop. There are some players who are tight enough to do so, because a raise represents a set or two pair on a board like that with little semi-bluffing opportunities.

[fiezk 0]

I don't know about poker stove, but according to my calculations we are ahead about 63% of the time. (We beat: 5pp, AK, AQ, KQ - 78 combinations. We're behind: 4pp, AJ, 3 sets - 45 combinations). This is according to the hand range given in the quiz, I tend to think that villain won't raise 22-77 100% of the time though.There are two ways to find out where we stand. 1. Raise to 3k. 2. Call. By calling we will give away equity in the cases where we are ahead, but by raising we are risking more chips. What I call 'added loss' is the cost associated with each option in order to find out if we have the best hand. To make it simple, let's say Villain will fold all hands except AJ, QQ, KK and AA to a 3k raise. And will fire again with TT+ (including improved drawing hands). If we are behind Villain has, roughly, an average of 4 outs. Which means that 63 percent of the time we are giving away about 8 percent in equity. Pot is 3200 after our call, making our 'added loss' 0.63*0.08*3200=161 chips.By raising we will lose 2000 37% of the time making our 'added loss': 0.37*2000=740.I don't know, maybe I've made a crucial mistake somewhere (please correct me if I have), but it looks like a clear call to me. Also, will villain continue betting if he/she picks up a draw or with a hand like 77? This changes things slightly.

[David_Nicoson 1]

I don't know about poker stove, but according to my calculations we are ahead about 63% of the time. (We beat: 5pp, AK, AQ, KQ - 78 combinations. We're behind: 4pp, AJ, 3 sets - 45 combinations). This is according to the hand range given in the quiz, I tend to think that villain won't raise 22-77 100% of the time though.

Pokerstove compares the showdown potential after the river of the ranges while you're computing the current leader. I think you're on the right path here.We're not going to a river most of the time here. We need to know likely we're ahead on the flop and then again on the turn if we give a free card. There's also the rare occasion when we hit our two-outer on the turn.

[Bubba83 0]

I think that is an incredibly easy smooth call, it keeps us from losing too much if we're beat and with your read we should still have a good idea of where we're at in the hand on the turn. Also, the board is not draw heavy so we don't need to worry about charging him since according to your read he cannot have a straight draw.

[LooseCannon 0]

I don't know about poker stove, but according to my calculations we are ahead about 63% of the time. (We beat: 5pp, AK, AQ, KQ - 78 combinations. We're behind: 4pp, AJ, 3 sets - 45 combinations). This is according to the hand range given in the quiz, I tend to think that villain won't raise 22-77 100% of the time though.

Part of your math problem is that when you're behind, you're often about 10% to suck out, while when you're ahead you opponent is 25% to draw out, so you can't weigh hands equally.

[fiezk 0]

Part of your math problem is that when you're behind, you're often about 10% to suck out, while when you're ahead you opponent is 25% to draw out, so you can't weigh hands equally.

Look at the calculations again, I'm not 'weighing hands equally'. Second, there are two more inaccuracies. 1. Villain has on average 4 outs (not 6) if he's ahead. 2. This hand will probably not see the river, regardless if we raise or call on the flop.

[TareqB 0]

Well, he bet the pot size, which means he did not flop the nuts most probably. If he had pocket sevens, fours, or an over pair, he will probably bet small, maybe half the pot size, to try to keep me in. If he had a monster like a set of Jacks, he probably will check, to try and trap me. So, I could only guess he has A-K, and try to buy the pot right here, and if I call he will still be in good shape. Or he might have A-J, and he is trying to protect his Jacks with the top kicker with that big bet.I definitely will not fold in here. My nines are still not too bad. If I hit a 9 on the turn, I could break him. If the turn comes 10 or 8, I will have a gutshot straight draw, and will move in on the turn, on a semi bluff. Therefore, I still am not too weak to fold.I also will not move in here, because if I did, and he had A-J, I'm dominated and he will call. He will fold the A-K or any pocket pair, but I don't want to risk the whole thing.Smooth calling here might look nice, but I won't call. If I called I will have no idea what he has. I also know he will fire again on the turn. If a big card comes, I can't call, and if his raise is big enough, even with a small card on the turn, the Jack will scare me, and I will still be worried he hit a set on the turn.Therefore, I will raise 3000. It's a big raise here. He will put me on a J with a lower kicker than his of course (if he had A-J), maybe he will even be worried I made a set, or I have an over pair. If he had a hand like A-K, A-Q, he will almost definitely fold to my re-raise. If he has A-J, he will most probably just call. I could then bluff if the turn comes a K or a Q, fold if an Ace or a small card comes - and of course hope for a 9. I think the re-raise is the best move here, I will get a lot of info regarding his hand, take control of the hand, scare him a bit, and set up a bluff if I needed it.Another thing,I would try to let him talk, pick up some tells, and get a better read on him, that will help me a lot. This is a situation I like to ask the question: " How much do you have left?", just to let him worry about my hand.By the way, I am putting him on pocket 10s.

[Magnifico 0]

Hi, (first post here)So Villian is a learning player...hihi...I think he is just playing orthodoxly (agressive and here with a hand), I mean he's got his trips on flop because the flop is not drawing anything. He bet on flop : a very good play indeed.Remember :1/villain has not a good position.2/it is like a HU pot : nothing to steal!That shows that there are limits even when playing agressive : you have to keep ur sens of danger. Be cautious here, the flop didnt help you and helped villian that's simple.I'd fold here...NB: Im frenchy, I m not a beginner in Poker, worse, I just played once in my whole life...I m just learning from books and DN's quiz is very funny. So dont take my opinion seriously. Thx

[simo_8ball 0]

I also know he will fire again on the turn.

Only if he is beating you. Read DN's post more clearly - the guy will give up on the turn if he has nothing.

[Canada 0]

If we assume that we are not folding 1000 is going in regardless.Cost of finding out you're winning by raising? 2000Cost of finding out you're winning by calling? (6/47)*(2500) = 319.15The (6/47)*(2500) represents the lost equity for giving a free card. It should actually be less because villain will not always have 6 outs.Seems like a pretty easy call to me unless you are ahead > 85% of the time on the flop

[jjburdick 0]

Is this a cash game or a tourney? Cash game I raise and if he calls and I don't improve I shut down and reach in my pocket after the hand is done and buy back up with hopes of getting my money back at a later time from the weak player at the table.Tourney I flat call and see what the turn brings because the extra 2000 raise is worth more because my tournament life is on the line(assuming its early in the tournament). Also, I still have a chance of winning the hand if he doesn't bet the turn with minimal risk.

[no eff eks 0]

Two options here -1. Fold... There is a chance you are ahead, but the 1000 is not a small bet considering the pot size. This is a "learning" player so I would be less inclined to put them on a bluff.2. Raise to 3000... this will probably win the pot for you unless they hold an overpair or AJ. I prefer raising here, because more often than not your nines are good - but calling will not tell you a damn thing. If the guy holds something like 88 he has no reason to stop betting when you just call.... but if he just calls - you have a good chance to chase him off the better hand - and if he folds you have already got all the value you could have out of this hand (he wasn't going to keep betting if you called, and would have folded to a raise anyway - so why give him the chance to suck out).Calling seems like the worst option. You could make a case for pushing all in, since I doubt guy has any better than just one pair - but that would depend on if you think this is a good enough player to throw away something like top pair or an overpair.

[cmak3687 0]

I personally don't think theres enough information to make the "perfect" decision here, but based on the information i'd smooth call. Personally i'd smooth call on that flop with a lot of hands, and i play a lot of hands. Smooth calling accomplishes a few things here in my opinion. One, it allows a scare card to roll off on the turn. Unless the villain turns two pair, or flopped a set, or turns a set, its going to be hard for him to proceed in the hand. If i'm flat calling with hands like 56, 67, 78, j10, qj, kj, aj, jj, 77, 44, theres almost no safe turn card. So when the turn comes, hes going to check if he has nothing, and theres a good chance hes going to check, and fold the best hand. If he turns top pair, he's still not going to be too comfortable in this hand. On a J 7 4 rainbow board, its not very draw heavy, so flat calling is typically indicative of a stronger hand. So by flat calling, you are comitting less chips on the flop, and you're increasing your chance of getting him to lay down the best hand.I think raising is pretty weak hear. Flat calling generally represents a bigger hand than a raise. There's not too much value in raising with a jack here. Most of the time you're either going to have your opponent crushed, or be crushed yourself. Raising will only get you called by a better hand, and prevent weaker hands from proceeding. So if your opponent feels most people aren't going to raise with the jack, than that really only leaves a few hands that would raise, and that would be a hand exactly like you have, 10 10, 99, or 88, or the 56. You open the door for your opponent to push you off the best hand instead of you pushing your opponent off a hand. There is a chance he might fold the best hand also, but i feel like hes going to fold the best hand more often when you flat call him.

[Canada 0]

This is a "learning" player so I would be less inclined to put them on a bluff.

The learning reference is DN stating that he (DN) is learning the correct terminology for wording these questions.Also I think you missed this bitYou know that Villian will likely make a continuation bet with any of the hands he has.

[Shimmering Wang 1]

This is a pretty absurd discussion.Given OP's analysis, calling is the play. If he fires the turn, and we are forced to fold, we're still fine chipwise, given the blinds/antes.If he checks, we bet the turn.I don't get it. What's the question? We don't want to play a big pot here, and if he's ahead, we'll shut down on the turn. If he catches up with a paint, we'll ALSO shut down on the turn. If he suddenly gets out of line, completely betraying our read, good for him.Wang

[Bromich 0]

It seems to be a blatantly obvious call. It seems obvious unless it's some sort of trick question, but I don't see how. Of course I've been wrong before and will be wrong again

[plushpoker06 0]

This is what people bump into all the time..I have poket 9's and the opponent(s) next to me, in my assumption, may have something better.. Pre-flop id either call or raise depending on the pairs.. But I call post flop given the fact i have pocket 9's.. After the flop, I may fold IF my opponent(s) raise higher anyways.. Because of one or two things.. An ace will hit on the turn or the river anyways and chances are slim that you can run trips or better anyways..Thank you for your time

[simo_8ball 0]

This is what people bump into all the time..I have poket 9's and the opponent(s) next to me, in my assumption, may have something better.. Pre-flop id either call or raise depending on the pairs.. But I call post flop given the fact i have pocket 9's.. After the flop, I may fold IF my opponent(s) raise higher anyways.. Because of one or two things.. An ace will hit on the turn or the river anyways and chances are slim that you can run trips or better anyways..Thank you for your time

I think, raise in the flop with pocket 9's will be the possibility of higher pair. But the 9's are on the river possibility, I might check for fear of the trap. Do agree of with playing poker analysis?

[blakheart 3]

call and reeavluate on the turn. You are most likely ahead, and a raise to $3000 may get called by an iferior hand (AK etc.). I think you get just as good of info by taking one off and seeing what villian does on the turn as you do by raising, and it is cheaper information.

[AceofSpader 0]

My intuition is telling me to raise to see my position in hand strength.If opponent has any hand at all, I normally have them bet before I do so I can suck them in.Depending on the hand that I have.JJ would definately make me raise.Done it many a times.AoS

[Acid_Knight 2]

I would call here given that the OP's analysis included the bit of information that there is likely to be only ONE continuation bet.Also, DN mentioned in a his most recent blog that:"People often ask me for "one tip" that should help change their game. Well, if I had just one shot, I think this would be it: in order to win a WPT event you can't be afraid to let them catch up, even if that means they outdraw you sometimes."I think this is about minimizing losses. Raising to 2500 (or 3K, which is basically the same) will protect your hand, but it will cost you 2.5 to 3 times as many chips if he does actually have a hand. You're not really risking that much by just calling and letting him draw to his 6 outs (if he's behind) for free. If you know that he's unlikely to fire 2 bullets with nothing, then I think smooth calling here is far and away the best play.I think if I have JT it definitely changes the scenario. Now I can know that I am beating all PPs smaller than Jacks, except for the 4s and 7s, and that hands that have a J in them are less likely. Based on the villain's range, it shouldn't make that much of a difference, but every bit counts.

[copernicus 0]

You are a coin flip favorite to be ahead. His cb gives you no additional information.You are WA/WB at this point and that calls for keeping the pot small, so you are certainly not going to raise. Since you are a favorite in the hand, you arent going to fold, especially since his turn action is going to tell you whether you should play further..ie you arent likely to make a mistake on the turn. Call and see what his turn action is, value bet if he doesnt show strength, fold if he does.

[thapokerdon9 0]

I would have to say that raising 3000 would be the best option here to get a better definition of the villian's hand. Smooth calling presents too many problems because your still not sure where your at in the hand plus it gives villian a chance to hit one of the two overcards he's probably holding. Plus if you only call and your opponent has two overs he's not going to bet again unless he hits. I only like smooth calling to build a pot but this opponent is only going to bet again on the turn if hes building a pot for himself. I say with a hand thats as vulnerable in this spot I would raise the 3000 to find out where I was but also hopefully to take the pot down here because I feel its likely I have the best hand.

[CBass1724 1]

Easiest quiz question ever!You obviously shove all in and pray for a call because you know the 9 is coming on the river.Duh.