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#3763685 The Trump Presidency Thread

Posted by FCP Bob on 22 November 2017 - 04:59 PM in Politics, Economics and News

View PostFCP Bob, on 22 November 2017 - 12:20 PM, said:

The U of Chicago polls a cross section of the leading American economists on a regular basis on many different topics. Those economists cover the political spectrum from Democrats to Republicans. They are a who's who of the leading American economists. If you actually knew anything about the Economics field you would recognize most of the names.

Some conservative Republican economists I follow on Twitter were mocking the lone outlier from the survey. If you aren't a hack there is no debate.



About the IGM Economic Experts Panel
This panel explores the extent to which economists agree or disagree on major public policy issues. To assess such beliefs we assembled this panel of expert economists. Statistics teaches that a sample of (say) 40 opinions will be adequate to reflect a broader population if the sample is representative of that population.

To that end, our panel was chosen to include distinguished experts with a keen interest in public policy from the major areas of economics, to be geographically diverse, and to include Democrats, Republicans and Independents as well as older and younger scholars. The panel members are all senior faculty at the most elite research universities in the United States. The panel includes Nobel Laureates, John Bates Clark Medalists, fellows of the Econometric society, past Presidents of both the American Economics Association and American Finance Association, past Democratic and Republican members of the President's Council of Economics, and past and current editors of the leading journals in the profession. This selection process has the advantage of not only providing a set of panelists whose names will be familiar to other economists and the media, but also delivers a group with impeccable qualifications to speak on public policy matters.

Finally, it is important to explain one aspect of our voting process. In some instances a panelist may neither agree nor disagree with a statement, and there can be two very different reasons for this. One case occurs when an economist is an expert on a topic and yet sees the evidence on the exact claim at hand as ambiguous. In such cases our panelists vote "uncertain". A second case relates to statements on topics so far removed from the economist's expertise that he or she feels unqualified to vote. In this case, our panelists vote "no opinion".

The Economic Experts Panel questions are emailed individually to the members of the panel, and each responds electronically at his or her convenience. Panelists may consult whatever resources they like before answering.

Members of the public are free to suggest questions (see link below), and the panelists suggest many themselves. Members of the IGM faculty are responsible for deciding the final version of each week’s question. We usually send a draft of the question to the panel in advance, and invite them to point out problems with the wording if they see any. In response, we typically receive a handful of suggested clarifications from individual experts. This process helps us to spot inconsistencies, and to reduce vagueness or problems of interpretation.

The panel data are copyrighted by the Initiative on Global Markets and are being analyzed for an article to appear in a leading peer-reviewed journal.



#3763669 The Trump Presidency Thread

Posted by FCP Bob on 22 November 2017 - 12:20 PM in Politics, Economics and News

View Postbrvheart, on 22 November 2017 - 10:31 AM, said:

Nothing in either of these Tweets would be able to convince an average toddler about anything. There are literally hundreds of thousands of economists in the world and they talked to 42? Did any of those economists ever explain sample size to the young liberals creating this narrative?

Who paid for this polling of 42, of the ever-cliche, "leading" economists? Oh. The University of Chicago? They probably don't have an agenda.





The U of Chicago polls a cross section of the leading American economists on a regular basis on many different topics. Those economists cover the political spectrum from Democrats to Republicans. They are a who's who of the leading American economists. If you actually knew anything about the Economics field you would recognize most of the names.

Some conservative Republican economists I follow on Twitter were mocking the lone outlier from the survey. If you aren't a hack there is no debate.



#3763646 Who Died Today?

Posted by FCP Bob on 22 November 2017 - 03:35 AM in General

View PostBigDMcGee, on 21 November 2017 - 11:00 PM, said:

David Cassidy before Danny Bonaduce? Talk about a long shot

well he is the older brother



#3763643 A H L Discussion

Posted by FCP Bob on 21 November 2017 - 05:33 PM in Sports- Hockey

View PostDanielNegreanu, on 21 November 2017 - 04:52 PM, said:

Champions League continues Wed Nov 22nd with a feature matchup fighting for top spot in Division A between:

The Big M's and Whalers

Featured matchup in Division B sees two teams jockeying for position atop the Division A playoff picture:

PK Dealers vs Shoot Loose

The Big M's
Forwards

Nikita Kucherov (TBL)
Johnny Gaudreau (CGY)
Mark Scheifele (WPJ)
Evander Kane (BUF)
Max Pacioretty (MTL)
Brandon Saad (CHI)
Defense
John Klingberg (DAL)
Roman Josi (NSH)
Tyson Barrie (COL)
Sami Vatanen (ANA)
Goalies
Goalies-A Carolina

Overtime Player
Nikita Kucherov (TBL)


Whalers
Forwards

Jamie Benn (DAL)
Sean Monahan (CGY)
Jakub Voracek (PHI)
Mikael Granlund (MIN)
Mika Zibanejad (NYR)
Evgenii Dadonov (FLO)
Defense
Erik Karlsson (OTT)
Shea Weber (MTL)
Oliver Ekman-Larsson (ARI)
Drew Doughty (LAK)
Goalies
Goalies-B Los Angeles

Overtime Player
Jamie Benn (DAL)



#3763639 The Trump Presidency Thread

Posted by FCP Bob on 21 November 2017 - 04:00 PM in Politics, Economics and News

This article from Jonah Goldberg in the LA Times is pretty spot on.

Taking harassment seriously also requires making serious distinctions



#3763638 The Trump Presidency Thread

Posted by FCP Bob on 21 November 2017 - 03:31 PM in Politics, Economics and News

Replying to @JustinWolfers
And 100% of this bi-partisan panel of economists believe that the Republican tax bill will cause the national debt to balloon over the next decade.

Point is, it is literally impossible to find a credible economist who buys Mnuchin’s claim that his tax bill will go anywhere near paying for itself.

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#3763637 The Trump Presidency Thread

Posted by FCP Bob on 21 November 2017 - 03:28 PM in Politics, Economics and News

Justin Wolfers‏
@JustinWolfers
The University of Chicago surveyed 42 leading economists and found exactly one who believes the Republican claim that their tax bill will grow the economy. http://www.igmchicag...ys/tax-reform-2

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#3763635 The Big M's Of The Alternative Hockey League

Posted by FCP Bob on 21 November 2017 - 03:09 PM in Sports- Hockey

Scouting report on Big M's 1st round draft pick Robert Thomas

St. Louis Blues: Robert Thomas has been fantastic all season long. He was great at the Blues' camp, he was great at the Canada-Russia series and he has put himself in the argument for the top player in the OHL. “He really controls the game. We have the puck 90 percent of the time when he’s on the ice,” said Rick Steadman, London’s assistant coach. Thomas stands out in so many ways and doesn’t have a glaring weakness. “He’s a very complete player,” said one NHL scout. While he was picked later, Thomas should be considered among the top OHL players in his age group, alongside Owen Tippett, Nick Suzuki and Gabriel Vilardi.



#3763601 A H L Discussion

Posted by FCP Bob on 19 November 2017 - 03:38 PM in Sports- Hockey

No pick ups on Nov 19th.

Serge tried to pick up 2 players who are on other team's farms.



#3763558 A H L Discussion

Posted by FCP Bob on 17 November 2017 - 03:01 PM in Sports- Hockey

View PostMapleLeafpoker, on 17 November 2017 - 02:54 PM, said:

neither did I.

I was debating asking Daniel to reconsider going back to Saturdays only, since I never seem to know when its a CL night. Since the schedule isnt as easy to see, not being on main site, I'm always forgetting the game nights. Maybe I'll just get used to it being on non-Saturday nights, but so far, I keep missing out on the sweat. Last night it didnt occur to me at all, and I was home watching most of the games.
I'm wondering of the AHL team owners, how many even knew it was a CL night yesterday?

I knew but I kept it quiet because I had a sucky lineup



#3763547 Ahl Shortstackers - 15/16 Champions League Div B Champ

Posted by FCP Bob on 17 November 2017 - 02:05 PM in Sports- Hockey

View PostZach6668, on 17 November 2017 - 02:04 PM, said:

I can't beleive Collberg bombed. Bozon, ok. He had potential but then almost died from meningitis.

My whole 2012 draft sucked. Hudon and Dumba the only players I have left? Reilly got me Hertl and Scheifele though.

5 Shortstackers Teuvo Teravainen CHI F



#3763542 2017-18 Canadian Gothic

Posted by FCP Bob on 17 November 2017 - 02:00 PM in Sports- Hockey

should have to wear this abomination

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#3763540 Whalers

Posted by FCP Bob on 17 November 2017 - 01:58 PM in Sports- Hockey

View PostMapleLeafpoker, on 17 November 2017 - 01:33 PM, said:

Since we are playing trade history, I looked up the greatest trade in Whalers history:
Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 5:22 pm Post subject: Big M's - Whalers Trade - A Sad Day In Big M Land The


Big M's receive The Swackers 3rd rd pick in 2012 USED TO SELECT TOREY KRUG!

The Whalers receive the greatest defenseman in the history of the Big M's and future member of the Big M's ring of honour Lubomir Visnovsky


Lubomir truly was a Hall of Famer at every point in his Big M's career.



#3763538 Ahl Shortstackers - 15/16 Champions League Div B Champ

Posted by FCP Bob on 17 November 2017 - 01:55 PM in Sports- Hockey

View PostMapleLeafpoker, on 17 November 2017 - 01:30 PM, said:

I think this gets even worse, cause wasnt DKeith who you got to give up Scheifele?

Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 11:31 521 Post subject: Greaseballs/Shortstackers trade


Shortstackers get:

F Mark Shiefele (WPG) farm
F Tomas Hertl (SJS) farm

Greaseballs get:

F Michael Grabner (NYI)
F Morgan Rielly (TOR) farm



Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2015 1:58 623 Post subject: Big Ms, Shortstackers Trade


Bob gets:

Mark Scheifele (WPG, F)


Zach gets:

Duncan Keith (CHI, D)
Tobias Enstrom (WPG, D)
Jay Bouwmeester (STL, D)
Mikael Wikstrand (OTT, D, farm)



#3763536 Ahl Shortstackers - 15/16 Champions League Div B Champ

Posted by FCP Bob on 17 November 2017 - 01:53 PM in Sports- Hockey

View PostMapleLeafpoker, on 17 November 2017 - 01:29 PM, said:

updated the post with how the picks were used, I get a kick out of seeing trades mapped out in full.
couldnt seem to easily find the trans's that got Z's picks moved away from bob

Petrovic was taken 43rd.

My 1st pick that year was 44th.

44 Big M's Torey Krug BOS D
45 Big M's John Gaudreau CGY F



#3763530 Ahl Shortstackers - 15/16 Champions League Div B Champ

Posted by FCP Bob on 17 November 2017 - 01:10 PM in Sports- Hockey

View PostZach6668, on 17 November 2017 - 01:05 PM, said:

I got that first back in a bad trade later. Probably took Grigorenko with it.

Posted: Sun Sep 02, 2012 8:56 914 Post subject: Blockbuster trade alert - Big M's and Shortstackers


To Shortstackers:
2012 Shortstackers 1st Round Pick (3rd overall)
Alex Burmistrov F - WPG (Farm)
Ryan Whitney - D - EDM
Paul Martin - D - PIT

To Big M's:
Keith Yandle - D - PHX
Duncan Keith - D - CHI
$7.00 12/13 Cash



#3763527 Ahl Shortstackers - 15/16 Champions League Div B Champ

Posted by FCP Bob on 17 November 2017 - 12:51 PM in Sports- Hockey

View PostZach6668, on 17 November 2017 - 07:09 AM, said:

Actually looking at that top 8 or so.

Stone - from Arp
Kuznetsov - from Bob
Zucker/Arvidsson - from Dale
Toffoli/MacKinnon/Teravainen/Barzal - drafted

Funny how I built by trading with the other top teams...

Posted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 6:06 796 Post subject: Big M's - Shortstackers Blockbuster Trade


The Shortstackers receive.

Brandon Sutter - F - Carolina
Evgeny Kuznetsov - F - Washington (Farm)
Linus Klasen - F - Nashville (Reserve) - since I would have dropped him anyway to make room
Big M's first round pick in the 2012 AHL Draft
Big M's second round pick in the 2012 AHL Draft

The Big M's receive.

Brad Richards - F - Dallas
Ales Hemsky - F - Edmonton
Shortstackers first round pick in the 2012 AHL Draft
Shortstackers third round pick in the 2012 AHL Draft



#3763513 A H L Discussion

Posted by FCP Bob on 17 November 2017 - 02:28 AM in Sports- Hockey

View PostZach6668, on 16 November 2017 - 08:43 PM, said:

What's wrong with the Big Ms? Bad lineup luck tonight? Injuries? The Stackers are laying a beating on them.

too distracted buying new snow tires today for the team bus.

Bike Lanes 1
Cars 0



#3763490 Off Off Topic: Cool Toronto People's Thread

Posted by FCP Bob on 16 November 2017 - 02:06 AM in Sports- Hockey

View PostZach6668, on 15 November 2017 - 07:59 PM, said:

Oof. Rio de Janeiro is #37. I'm trying to put together a trip there next year.

Death toll mounts in Rio de Janeiro as police lose control of the city – and of themselves

On June 30, a baby was shot in his mother’s belly in Rio de Janeiro. After the rifle fire hit 29-year-old Claudinéia in the hip in the Favela do Lixão neighbourhood, her son Arthur was delivered via emergency cesarean section. He will be a paraplegic for life.

This was just one of 181 shootings that took place in Rio that June week. A day earlier, Marlene Maria da Conceição, age 72, was shot in the Mangueira favela while picking up her grandson from school. Her daughter, Ana Cristina, 49, was struck when she tried to help her mother. Both women died.

Just hours before her death, Ana Cristina had called the violence in her neighbourhood “unbelievable” on social media, posting that the “shooting has been going on for nearly three hours.”

Two days earlier, Fabio, a doorman returning home from work, was killed by shrapnel from a grenade at the entrance to the Pavão-Pavãozinho favela, a stone’s throw from Ipanema and Copacabana, two of Rio’s wealthiest neighbourhoods.

Even in Brazil, where homicides are all too common, Rio de Janeiro’s crime rate is stunning. It is now impossible not to notice that the city’s Police Pacification Units (UPP), once a much-vaunted anti-violence force, have all but collapsed.



#3763459 Off Off Topic: Cool Toronto People's Thread

Posted by FCP Bob on 15 November 2017 - 04:24 AM in Sports- Hockey

From The Economist.

http://safecities.economist.com/

Toronto the 4th safest big city in the World

Safe Cities Index 2017
Cities across the globe are growing in size and in terms of how connected they are. Which cities are best at keeping their citizens safe and how do they do it? An updated and expanded version of The Safe Cities Index 2015, the 2017 index covers 60 cities across the globe and defines how to measure security in a rapidly urbanising world.

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#3763458 Random News Observations

Posted by FCP Bob on 15 November 2017 - 04:23 AM in Politics, Economics and News

From The Economist.

http://safecities.economist.com/

Toronto the 4th safest big city in the World

Safe Cities Index 2017
Cities across the globe are growing in size and in terms of how connected they are. Which cities are best at keeping their citizens safe and how do they do it? An updated and expanded version of The Safe Cities Index 2015, the 2017 index covers 60 cities across the globe and defines how to measure security in a rapidly urbanising world.

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#3763441 Random News Observations

Posted by FCP Bob on 14 November 2017 - 05:24 PM in Politics, Economics and News

next time a lying moron mentions Uranium One watch this report from Fox News Shep Smith. This is basically a big Fuck You to all the wingnut liars on his network.




#3763436 Random News Observations

Posted by FCP Bob on 14 November 2017 - 01:57 PM in Politics, Economics and News

View Postbrvheart, on 14 November 2017 - 12:17 PM, said:

As far as I've seen, Moore isn't being accused of pedophilia. He's being accused of sexual predation of people that were past the age of consent.

I only say this to make a clarification on that joke, not to "defend" Roy Moore's actions.

no, 14 is not the age of consent even in Alabama. He abused a child.



#3763405 Ahl Numbers And Stuff

Posted by FCP Bob on 13 November 2017 - 02:14 PM in Sports- Hockey

View PostMapleLeafpoker, on 13 November 2017 - 02:12 PM, said:

might be way off, but was it penalties for missed lineups? I seem to recall you guys had something like that in place.

It could be something like that or somebody who didn't show up to the draft but had picks.



#3763403 Ahl Numbers And Stuff

Posted by FCP Bob on 13 November 2017 - 02:07 PM in Sports- Hockey

View PostBabying, on 13 November 2017 - 01:10 PM, said:

What's the deal with the missed picks in 2009?

I don't recall exactly what